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As the highly-anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving approaches, a new research report highlights the evolving role of institutions and “smart money” investors in influencing price action.

What Happened: The halving will cut the block rewards for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) miners in half, impacting supply and potentially affecting demand.

“Traditionally, Bitcoin halvings have led to significant price increases in the subsequent 12 months,” said Marcin Miłosierny, a researcher at crypto analytics firm Glassnode.

“For instance, after the first halving, Bitcoin’s price surged by over 1,000%.”

However, Miłosierny emphasizes that the market landscape has matured considerably since then.

Institutional Investors And Bitcoin ETFs Reshape The Game

The rise of institutional investors and the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are fundamentally changing the way supply and demand interact within the Bitcoin market.

Unlike past halvings, where new miner issuance directly impacted supply, daily ETF purchases can now significantly outweigh the amount of Bitcoin miners bring to market.

“This means ETFs are effectively absorbing a substantial portion of newly minted Bitcoin,” explained Miłosierny. “Their buying and selling activity can significantly influence market liquidity and price stability.”

Also Read: Meme Coins And The Bitcoin Rollercoaster: A Match Made In Mania?

Navigating A More Nuanced Market

Glassnode’s report, featured in the “Glassnode Q2 Guide to Crypto Markets,” underscores the need for investors to consider these evolving dynamics when formulating their strategies. Here are some key takeaways:

• Monitor ETF Activity: Closely track ETF inflows and outflows. A decrease in ETF purchases could indicate a potential market downturn.
• Watch Long-Term Holders: Increased selling by established Bitcoin investors could signal a market peak, impacting price levels.
• Beware the Hype: Be cautious of potential “sell-the-news” scenarios surrounding the halving. Strategic adjustments to investment positions might be necessary to navigate anticipated volatility.

Gaining Insights At Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets Event

Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets conference, taking place on Nov. 19 will be a key platform for investors to gain deeper insights into the evolving role of institutions and “smart money” in the cryptocurrency market.

Read Next: Binance To Re-Enter India After $2M Penalty, Pledges Compliance

Photo: Shutterstock

Crypto research firm 10x Research is worried about the possibility of a significant price correction for risk assets, including stocks and crypto, with inflation being the main trigger.

What Happened: In an April 15 newsletter titled “We Sold Everything Last Night,” 10x Research writes that the narrative for a sustainable crypto bull market can’t simply be that U.S. baby boomers are buying Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) because BlackRock suddenly promoted an ETF.

They believe there must be a broader portfolio allocation diversification approach to include Bitcoin in portfolios.

10x Research emphasizes the importance of understanding that trading is an ongoing game with high-conviction opportunities. They believe the key is to keep analyzing the markets and finding those opportunities when the odds are in your favor.

Risks: Persistent Inflation, Interest Rate Cuts

The research highlights the unexpected and persistent inflation as a primary trigger for a potential price correction. With 10-year Treasury Yields surpassing 4.50% and the bond market now projecting less than three cuts, they believe risk assets may be at a crucial tipping point.

They also worry that the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates at all this year. This could challenge the narrative that has driven most of the 2023/2024 Bitcoin rally (past year gains at 112.2%), which is based on expectations of interest rate cuts.

Also Read: Bitcoin Likely To See ‘Mid-Term Correction’, Says Crypto Trader: Bull Market Is ‘Just Taking A Break‘

Historical And Expected Pattern Post-Halving

Bitcoin halving tends to be bullish, at least initially: Sixty days after the last three Halving events, Bitcoin was up 16%, but returns were skewed to the 2012 post-halving return when prices rallied 45% higher.

The data indicated that the pre-halving 60-day window was bullish and predicted a rally towards 68,000, which happened. In contrast, the post-halving data still shows a 16% surge, with the returns only picking up after 50 days.

Bearish Stance

Overall, 10x Research is bearish on risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies. They have sold all their tech stocks and only hold a few high-conviction cryptocurrencies. They are lightly positioned and are expecting to buy again at better levels.

What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

Read Next: Bitcoin Halving Jitters: Why 10x Research Urges Caution

Image created using artificial intelligence with Midjourney.

U.S. stocks traded mixed midway through trading, with the Nasdaq Composite falling around 0.2% on Tuesday.

The Dow traded up 0.13% to 37,784.21 while the NASDAQ fell 0.20% to 15,853.34. The S&P 500 also fell, dropping, 0.29% to 5,047.11.

Check This Out: Alphabet, Toll Brothers And 2 Other Stocks Insiders Are Selling

 

Leading and Lagging Sectors

 

Health care shares rose by 0.2% on Tuesday.

In trading on Tuesday, real estate shares fell by 1.8%.

 

Top Headline

 

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reported better-than-expected earnings for its first quarter.

The company reported revenues of $15.1 billion, beating the consensus of $14.34 billion. EPS stood at $2.02, beating the consensus of $1.68.

 

Equities Trading UP

 

Jaguar Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:JAGX) shares shot up 57% to $0.1861 after the company signed an exclusive 5-year in-license agreement with Venture Life Group for Gelclair.

Shares of WiSA Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:WISA) got a boost, surging 97% to $3.44 after the company announced a 5-year WiSA E licensing agreement with an HDTV/PTV brand.

Palisade Bio, Inc. (NASDAQ:PALI) shares were also up, gaining 54% to $6.40 after the company announced the completion of analysis evaluating ex-vivo bioactivation of PALI-2108.

 

Equities Trading DOWN

 

Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. (NYSE:BNED) shares dropped 64% to $0.25 after the company announced a short-term shareholder rights plan and a new equity investment.

Shares of Calidi Biotherapeutics, Inc. (NYSE:CLDI) were down 55% to $0.27 after the company announced the pricing of a $6.1 million public offering.

Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (NASDAQ:PACB) was down, falling 42% to $1.6550 after the company issued weak guidance.

Also Check This Out: Top 4 Tech Stocks You May Want To Dump In April

 

Commodities

 

In commodity news, oil traded up 0.1% to $85.49 while gold traded up 0.8% at $2,402.50.

Silver traded down 2.2% to $28.10 on Tuesday, while copper fell 2.1% to $4.2860.

 

Euro zone

 

European shares were lower today. The eurozone’s STOXX 600 dipped 1.64%, London’s FTSE 100 fell 1.94% while Spain’s IBEX 35 Index declined 1.61% The German DAX dipped 1.52% French CAC 40 fell 1.55% while Italy’s FTSE MIB Index declined 1.73%.

The Eurozone reported a trade surplus of €23.6 billion in February, up from a year-ago surplus of €3.6 billion. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Eurozone improved by 10.4 points to a reading of 43.9 in April.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany climbed to 42.9 in April, compared to 31.7 in March, and topping market estimates of 35.9, while German wholesale prices declined by 3% year-over-year in March. The annual inflation rate in Italy accelerated to 1.2% in March from 0.8% in February.

Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the UK rose 5.6% year-over-year to GBP 677/week during the three months to February, while unemployment rate increased to 4.2% from 3.9%.

 

Asia Pacific Markets

 

Asian markets closed lower on Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling 1.94%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropping 2.12%, China’s Shanghai Composite falling 1.65% and India’s S&P BSE Sensex dipping 0.62%.

Chinese retail sales climbed by 3.1% year-over-year in March compared to a 5.5% gain in the earlier period, while Chinese economy expanded by 1.6% in the first quarter versus a revised 1.2% gain in the prior quarter. China’s industrial production surged by 4.5% year-over-year in March.

 

Economics

 

U.S. building permits declined by 4.3% to an annual rate of 1.458 million in March, compared to a 2.3% increase in February.

Housing starts in the U.S. dipped 14.7% month-over-month to an annual rate of 1.321 million in March versus revised 1.549 million level in the prior month.

Industrial production in the U.S. increased by 0.4% from the prior month in March versus a revised 0.4% rise in the prior month.

Now Read This: Super Micro Computer To Rally Around 70%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Tuesday

In the lead-up to the release of Taylor Swift’s latest album, “The Tortured Poets Department,” fans are reportedly creating a bustling market for unauthorized merchandise. This surge in bootleg products highlights the intense loyalty and engagement of Swift’s fanbase, as they eagerly await the official album drop.

What Happened: The official Taylor Swift store is currently limited to preorders, prompting fans to seek out third-party sellers for their Swift-themed merchandise fix, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. Platforms like Etsy, Amazon.com and Redbubble have become hotspots for items such as T-shirts, bodysuits, and friendship bracelets, all inspired by Swift’s recent Eras Tour.

Etsy vendors have seen a whopping $3 million in sales from Swift-inspired friendship bracelets alone, during the tour’s six-month tenure. Swift’s concerts have not only been a cultural phenomenon but also an economic powerhouse, contributing an estimated $4.3 billion to the U.S. GDP over the past year.

An overwhelming 95% of Swift’s fans have reportedly bought Taylor-related merchandise in the past year, with over half of those purchases being unofficial items. Despite the legal gray area of profiting from Swift’s image, fans are spending an average of $142 per transaction on these bootleg products.

Maddie Bryan, a fan and fashion marketer, has tapped into this trend, selling her Swift-inspired bodysuits on Etsy for $1,150 each. Etsy’s data shows a spike in searches for items Swift has worn, such as choker-style necklaces, showcasing her significant influence on fashion trends.

See Also: Dogecoin Co-Creator Billy Markus Sarcastically Signals Caution Amid Cryptocurrency Market Crash: ‘Oh No Everything Died We Are Dead’

The official merchandise market is grappling with challenges posed by resellers inflating prices, but the unofficial market is flourishing, offering fans more varied and accessible ways to show their support for the pop icon.

Why It Matters: Taylor Swift’s influence extends far beyond her music, shaping economic trends and even potentially impacting political outcomes. Swift’s Eras Tour grossed over $1 billion, contributing to her $1.82 billion revenue in 2023, a testament to her monumental impact on the music industry.

Swift’s strategic reintroduction of her music to TikTok, bypassing her label’s ban, has further fueled fan excitement and engagement, setting the stage for her album’s release. This move underscores her savvy in leveraging social media to connect with her audience.

Moreover, Swift’s reach could extend into the political arena with the potential influence Swifties could have on voter participation in the upcoming presidential election, following Swift’s endorsement of President Joe Biden in 2020.

Read Next: Unlike His Behavior In E. Jean Carroll Case, Donald Trump Is ‘Going To Have Sit There’ In Upcoming Criminal Case, Says Ex-Prosecutor

Photo by Brian Friedman on Shutterstock

Investors with a lot of money to spend have taken a bullish stance on American Airlines Gr (NASDAQ:AAL).

And retail traders should know.

We noticed this today when the trades showed up on publicly available options history that we track here at Benzinga.

Whether this is an institution or just a wealthy individual, we don’t know. But when something this big happens with AAL, it often means somebody knows something is about to happen.

Today, Benzinga’s options scanner spotted 8 options trades for American Airlines Gr.

This isn’t normal.

The overall sentiment of these big-money traders is split between 87% bullish and 12%, bearish.

Out of all of the options we uncovered, 7 are puts, for a total amount of $706,283, and there was 1 call, for a total amount of $27,500.

Expected Price Movements

Taking into account the Volume and Open Interest on these contracts, it appears that whales have been targeting a price range from $10.0 to $25.0 for American Airlines Gr over the last 3 months.

Insights into Volume & Open Interest

Looking at the volume and open interest is an insightful way to conduct due diligence on a stock.

This data can help you track the liquidity and interest for American Airlines Gr’s options for a given strike price.

Below, we can observe the evolution of the volume and open interest of calls and puts, respectively, for all of American Airlines Gr’s whale activity within a strike price range from $10.0 to $25.0 in the last 30 days.

American Airlines Gr Call and Put Volume: 30-Day Overview

Largest Options Trades Observed:

Symbol	PUT/CALL	Trade Type	Sentiment	Exp. Date	Ask	Bid	Price	Strike Price	Total Trade Price	Open Interest	Volume
AAL	PUT	SWEEP	BULLISH	01/17/25	$13.0	$12.1	$12.1	$25.00	$363.0K	0	300
AAL	PUT	TRADE	BEARISH	06/21/24	$0.13	$0.1	$0.12	$10.00	$120.0K	137.2K	10
AAL	PUT	TRADE	BULLISH	11/15/24	$3.4	$3.35	$3.35	$16.00	$55.2K	9	135
AAL	PUT	SWEEP	BULLISH	09/20/24	$0.53	$0.52	$0.52	$11.00	$45.6K	12.4K	184
AAL	PUT	SWEEP	BULLISH	11/15/24	$3.4	$3.35	$3.35	$16.00	$45.2K	9	135

About American Airlines Gr

American Airlines is the world’s largest airline by aircraft, capacity, and scheduled revenue passenger miles. Its major U.S. hubs are Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. It generates over 30% of U.S. airline revenue connecting Latin America with destinations in the United States. After completing a major fleet renewal, the company has the youngest fleet of U.S. legacy carriers.

After a thorough review of the options trading surrounding American Airlines Gr, we move to examine the company in more detail. This includes an assessment of its current market status and performance.

Where Is American Airlines Gr Standing Right Now?

• Currently trading with a volume of 9,772,929, the AAL’s price is up by 0.5%, now at $13.01.
• RSI readings suggest the stock is currently may be approaching oversold.
• Anticipated earnings release is in 13 days.

Professional Analyst Ratings for American Airlines Gr

Over the past month, 1 industry analysts have shared their insights on this stock, proposing an average target price of $19.0.

• An analyst from UBS has revised its rating downward to Buy, adjusting the price target to $19.

Trading options involves greater risks but also offers the potential for higher profits. Savvy traders mitigate these risks through ongoing education, strategic trade adjustments, utilizing various indicators, and staying attuned to market dynamics. Keep up with the latest options trades for American Airlines Gr with Benzinga Pro for real-time alerts.

Major cryptocurrency exchanges are revving up excitement for the upcoming Bitcoin halving event with creative ad campaigns.

What Happened: Coinbase Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) and Kraken, two of the leading US exchanges, have unveiled commercials highlighting the potential impact of the halving on Bitcoin‘s (CRYPTO: BTC) value.

Coinbase Uses Pizza Power To Illustrate Value Growth

Coinbase’s commercial takes a lighthearted approach, using pizza as a metaphor to showcase Bitcoin’s value appreciation since its launch in 2009.

Food for thought:
What if money was designed to get you more over time, not less?#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/z8eHF8JltQ

— Coinbase (@coinbase) April 15, 2024

The ad features graphics that depict how the amount of pizza you could buy with one Bitcoin has grown significantly over each four-year halving cycle.

The commercial’s tagline, “Over time, your money gets you less; does Bitcoin?” summarizes this point effectively.

This lighthearted approach resonates with viewers and underscores the potential buying power that Bitcoin can offer.

Also Read: Is Ethereum Dead? This Bitcoin Trader Thinks So: ‘Solana Attacking From Left Flank’

Kraken Delves Deeper Into The Essence of Money

Kraken’s commercial takes a more philosophical approach, contrasting traditional fiat currency with Bitcoin’s unique properties.

The ad sparks curiosity by opening with the question, “How is paper money valued?” It then answers with a thought-provoking statement: “Someone said so.”

JUST IN: Kraken releases new #Bitcoin commercial leading up to the halving

pic.twitter.com/1Sem5yHyyh

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) April 15, 2024

This line challenges viewers to consider the arbitrary nature of traditional currency valuation.

Kraken then positions Bitcoin as “digital gold,” highlighting its limited supply (capped at 21 million coins) and its resistance to counterfeiting.

The commercial emphasizes that unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin’s value is driven by scarcity and demand, not by the supposed whims of central authorities.

The ad goes a step further by highlighting Bitcoin’s divisibility, a key feature that allows for microtransactions.

This functionality empowers users to make smaller purchases and gain more control over their finances, independent of traditional banking systems.

Why It Matters: Both Coinbase and Kraken’s commercials effectively capture the growing interest in Bitcoin and the potential impact of the upcoming halving event.

With the increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies, 2024 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for the digital asset space.

What’s Next: The upcoming Future of Digital Assets conference on Nov. 19 offers a valuable platform for investors of all levels to navigate this dynamic landscape.

This premier event will convene leading crypto experts to discuss market trends, investment strategies, and the evolving role of digital assets in the global financial system.

Don’t miss this opportunity to gain insights from industry leaders and equip yourself with the knowledge to make informed decisions in the exciting world of cryptocurrency.

Read Next: Arthur Hayes: ‘That Was The Dip, Now We Rip,’ Asks 490K Followers What Coins To Buy

WiSA Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:WISA) shares are skyrocketing on Tuesday.

The company’s unit WiSA Association has executed its fourth 5-year WiSA E licensing agreement with a fourth major HDTV/PTV (Projection TV) brand.

The WiSA E license allows the brand to integrate WiSA E software into its products, thereby offering consumers wireless immersive audio options, including interoperability with any of the WiSA E-enabled speakers offered by the many WiSA Association speaker brands.

WiSA E entails a suite of audio features that define how audio should be experienced across HDTVs, PTVs, soundbars, mobile devices, set top boxes, and speakers. 

“We are very pleased that yet another major HDTV brand recognizes the value of our WiSA E technology, as well as our licensing model for market deployment,” said Tony Ostrom, president of the WiSA Association.

WiSA E can be implemented across four HDTV SoC providers, including Realtek, Amlogic, Mediatek, and Novatek, and can be designed to be fully interoperable with WiSA-E enabled speakers.

Price Action: WISA shares are trading higher by 83% to $3.21 on the last check Tuesday. 

Photo via Shutterstock

Editor’s Note: This article has been updated to accurately report the remaining funds as $350 billion.

In an exclusive interview with Benzinga, Michael Sayers, CFA and vice president and portfolio manager at Rockland Trust, shared valuable insights into today’s investment opportunities.

Below, we explore the key questions and Sayers’ insightful responses:

How The CHIPS Act, IRA Act & Infrastructure Act Create Investment Opportunities

When asked about the anticipated influence of recent legislative developments like the CHIPS Act, IRA Act, and Infrastructure Act on investment opportunities, Sayers provided a comprehensive overview.

Regarding the potential effects of the CHIPS Act on technology investments and the semiconductor industry, Sayers pointed out the significant earmarked funds for semiconductors.

He highlighted the substantial infrastructure-related spending authorized by these acts, totaling approximately $1 trillion over the next decade.

A Significant Amount Of Money Still On The Table

Some quick back-of the napkin math by Sayers went as follows;

“Infrastructure-related spending across the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Infrastructure, and CHIPS acts totals ~$1 Trillion over a period of 10 years ending in 2031. About $650 billion has been authorized/committed so far.”

• About $250 billion has been allocation to semiconductors.

This should benefit investments into the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:SOXX) which provides exposure to the semiconductor equity sector in the U.S.

• Another $250 billion to clean energy and power.

The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (NYSE:ICLN), along with the Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:TAN) are among the two most popular ETFs that should benefit from this allocation.

• $150 billion has been allocated for EV and EV batteries.

Investors in the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV), the iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF (NYSE:IDRV) and the KraneShares Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility Index ETF (NYSE:KARS) which invest in stocks of electric vehicle manufacturers, should see this benefit trickling down to them.

“That leaves a significant amount of money still on the table, particularly under the IRA & CHIPS acts,” Sayer said pointing to $350 billion remaining from the total $1 trillion allocation.

Multi-Year Runway Of Annualized Double-Digit Growth Ahead

Backed by the $350 billion remaining, Sayers emphasized, “There is a multi-year runway of annualized double-digit growth in infrastructure-related construction & manufacturing spending ahead of us through the end of the decade.”

Rockland Trust allocates to the Russell Global Infrastructure Fund (RGISX) to take advantage of this positive outlook but also to provide diversification to the high-quality stock & bond portfolios that the firm manages for its clients

Investment Opportunities: Building upon Sayer’s insights into the potential growth in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, let’s explore capital market instruments that investors could utilize to partake in this anticipated growth. Various Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) present attractive options for investors seeking exposure to these sectors.

ETFs for Infrastructure and Manufacturing Sectors: Infrastructure ETFs such as PAVE, IGF, and IFRA, as well as Manufacturing/Industrials ETFs like XLI and ITA, offer exposure to sectors poised for growth amid these legislative developments.

Let’s first look at the top infrastructure ETFs

These ETFs provide investors with diversified portfolios of companies operating in infrastructure development, manufacturing, and related industries, aligning with the anticipated growth trajectories highlighted by Sayers.

Some popular Infrastructure ETFs include:

Symbol	ETF	Total Assets ($MM)	YTD% (as of April 15)
PAVE	Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF	$7,514.84	+11.32%
IGF	iShares Global Infrastructure ETF	$3,503.42	-1.49%
IFRA	iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF	$2,320.23	4.71%
NFRA	FlexShares STOXX Global Broad Infrastructure Index Fund	$2,215.70	-2.04%

Now let’s look at the top Manufacturing/Industrial ETFs

Symbol	ETF	Total Assets ($MM)	YTD% (as of April 15)
XLI	XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund	$18,253,700	8.15%
ITA	ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF	$5,998,910	1.09%
VIS	VIS Vanguard Industrials ETF	$5,328,240	7.99%
PPA	PPA Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF	$3,012,080	7.63%
FXR	FXR First Trust Industrials/Producer Durables AlphaDEX Fund	$1,942,100	8.12%

Investors can strategically navigate legislative developments and capitalize on emerging growth sectors by leveraging ETFs tailored to infrastructure and manufacturing industries.

With the guidance of financial professionals and thorough research, investors can position themselves to benefit from the evolving economic landscape.

Now Read: High-Interest Rates Could Cause ‘More Things To Break’ In US Economy By 2025, Warns Strategist

Image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Financial Conditions Ease

Please click here for an enlarged chart of crude oil futures.

Note the following:

• Oil is most sensitive to developments in the Middle East.
• The chart shows that oil is falling after an Iranian attack on Israel.
• The chart shows that oil is consolidating around the upper trendline.
• The best of all scenarios is playing out in the Middle East.
  • Although there are contradictory reports, it is near certain that Iran informed Turkey and Turkey informed the U.S. of the Iranian attack in advance.
  • The reason Iran informed the U.S. in advance is because Iran’s purpose was to show force and save face but not inflict much damage and for the U.S. to restrain Israel.
  • The advance notice allowed the U.S. and Israel to shoot down 99% of about 300 drones and missiles, resulting in very little damage.
  • Iran issued several statements that the operation was concluded.
  • Biden is working hard to restrain Israel.
  • Not only is oil down, stocks are being aggressively bought on the best Middle East scenario being played out.
• In The Arora Report analysis, Iran’s response to directly attack Israel has increased risks in the long term, especially without a robust response from Israel.
• Further, in The Arora Report analysis, Iran is buying time to build its nuclear capability.
• The momo crowd, being in a celebratory mood, is oblivious to several negative developments as outlined below:
  • A market research firm with a good track record is projecting that Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone shipments fell about 10% in the last quarter. Apple shipped 50.1M iPhones according to this report. The consensus from Wall Street analysts is 51.7M iPhones. This is the worst drop in Apple iPhone shipments since the COVID lockdown.
  • As full disclosure, Apple is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio from The Arora Report and is long from $4.68. The prior Arora call has been to hedge the Apple position. Stay tuned for the plan on hedges and the potential change in the buy zone.
  • Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is laying off 10% of its workforce. At the same time, Tesla is cutting the price for Full Self-Driving subscription to $99 from $199. In The Arora Report analysis, this is a brilliant move by Musk.
• New economic data shows good news for the economy but bad news for the momo crowd. After a brief hiatus, the U.S. consumer is back on a spending binge. Since the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based, prudent investors pay attention to retail sales.  Here are the details:
  • Headline retail sales came at 0.7% vs. 0.4% consensus.
  • Retail sales ex-auto came at 1.1% vs. 0.5% consensus.
• In The Arora Report analysis, to control inflation, it is important that financial conditions do not become too loose. The root cause of financial conditions becoming too loose is Fed chair Powell. Due to the high importance of this matter, we are starting work on a podcast on this subject. Powell is trying his best to loosen financial conditions by jawboning at a time when the data clearly shows that Powell should be trying to tighten financial conditions. Conservative analysts are concluding that Powell is acting this way to help with Biden’s re-election. Trump has said that he will not reappoint Powell.  
• If retail sales continue to be strong, it argues against cutting rates at all. In The Arora Report analysis, the data so far shows that even a rate hike should be on the table. None of this is good for the stock market. However, keep in mind that the stock market is controlled by the momo crowd, and the momo crowd does not do any deep analysis. 

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL, TSLA

In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is like a yoyo in gold in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV). 

Oil  

The momo crowd is selling oil in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:USO).

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) fell like a rock when the news of Iran’s attack on Israel broke. For prudent bitcoin investors, this busts the popular myth propagated by bitcoin whales to lure in retail investors that bitcoin is a hedge against geopolitics.   

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter.

This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

As the tech sector braces for its upcoming earnings season, Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives provides a bullish outlook.

Tech Sell-Off – A Compelling Buying Opportunity

He foresees a potential 15% surge in key stocks including Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG), Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), Palantir Technologies Inc (NYSE:PLTR), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META).

Also Read: OpenAI Launches First Asian Office in Tokyo Amid Microsoft’s Massive AI and Cloud Push in Japan

Ives views the recent risk-off environment and tech sell-off as a compelling buying opportunity, attributing the market downturn to concerns such as a hot Consumer Price Index (CPI), weak bank earnings, and geopolitical tensions.

Over the past month, the SPDR Technology Select Sector ETF (NYSE:XLK) is down 2.63%. The broad market S&P 500 tracking SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) is down 1.16% over the same period.

However, he believes the spotlight will soon shift to the eagerly anticipated tech earnings season, which he expects to be robust across the board.

Q1 Earnings To Set The Stage For Upward Momentum In Tech Stocks

According to Ives, the anticipated strength in tech stocks isn’t solely based on multiples but stems from accelerating growth and earnings, surpassing Street expectations. He emphasizes the pivotal role of the upcoming Q1 earnings season in setting the stage for further upward momentum in the tech sector throughout the year.

Here’s a glimpse of when these promising tech companies are scheduled to report earnings:

Company	Stock Ticker	Quarter	Earnings Date
Microsoft	MSFT	Q3	April 25
Alphabet	GOOG, GOOGL	Q1	April 26
Amazon	AMZN	Q1	April 29
Palantir	PLTR	Q1	May 6
Meta Platforms	META	Q1	April 24

Source: Benzinga Earnings Calendar

Expectations are high for standout performances from tech giants such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Palantir, and Meta. Sectors like software, cybersecurity, digital advertising, and semiconductors, should get particular attention, per Ives.

Other Potential Standouts

Ives also highlights cybersecurity firms like Zscaler Inc (NASDAQ:ZS), CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:CRWD), Palo Alto Networks Inc (NASDAQ:PANW), CyberArk Software Ltd (NASDAQ:CYBR), Check Point Software Technologies Ltd (NASDAQ:CHKP), and Tenable Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:TENB) as potential standouts in the upcoming earnings reports.

Confidence in the potential of the AI Revolution to drive growth is bolstered by field checks conducted globally over the past month, indicating that monetization in this realm has entered a new phase of accelerated growth.

As investors await the earnings reports, the tech sector remains poised for further appreciation, with Ives projecting a 15% increase in tech stocks for the year.

With software, cybersecurity, digital advertising, and semiconductors taking center stage, the upcoming earnings season could mark a significant milestone in reaffirming the tech sector’s growth trajectory for the remainder of 2024.

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Image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.