Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) is charging into its first-quarter earnings report on Wednesday with strong technical momentum, but investors might want to buckle up. Wall Street is expecting the company to report 88 cents in earnings on $43.21 billion revenue for the quarter, as it reports after market hours.
While the charts are flashing bullish signals, Wall Street is bracing for what could be a messy quarter, driven not by a lack of demand—but by supply chain snarls tied to China’s restrictions and the high-profile H20 chip delay.
On the technical front, Nvidia stock looks rock solid. The stock is trading at $135.50, well above its eight-day, 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs)—$134.03, $125.44, and $115.39, respectively. The 200-day SMA also trails at $126.47, further reinforcing the bullish setup for Nvidia stock.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stands at 6.31, suggesting upward momentum remains intact. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 68.00, inching closer to the overbought territory but still showing healthy buying pressure.
Despite these bullish signals, not everyone is convinced the upcoming earnings will sustain Nvidia’s rally.
Guidance Could Trim By 10% – Says Investment Strategist
Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors, is not expecting fireworks. “I don’t think it is going to be a catalyst quarter. It’s noisy– you have the China restrictions, etc. So, July quarter guidance probably has to come down because of the H20 issue,” she warned, estimating the impact could shave off about 10% from outlook expectations.
The H20 chip, a modified version of Nvidia’s flagship AI hardware designed to comply with U.S. export controls, has hit production snags in China, one of Nvidia’s key growth markets. Add in chatter about slower rack production and power supply constraints, and it’s clear why sentiment is mixed.
Still, Link argues that these are supply, not demand, problems. “They’re going to do about $5 in earnings power, this year I would assume,” she added, signaling long-term confidence despite short-term turbulence.
With Nvidia stock up nearly 25% in the past month, optimism is already baked in. Whether the stock extends its bullish run may hinge on how investors digest potentially weak guidance—especially if it’s seen as a temporary blip rather than a structural concern.
