Big bank earnings season kicks off Tuesday, July 15, with key industry heavyweight JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) and Wells Fargo Corp. (NYSE:WFC) headlining a crucial reporting day for financials, as Wall Street eyes a rebound in quarterly profits fueled by stronger net interest income and healthy capital markets activity.
Here’s what to expect as the second-quarter 2025 numbers roll in before the bell.
Bank Profits Growth Expected
Wall Street expects a strong quarter for major banks, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecast to deliver earnings per share (EPS) of $4.48 in the second quarter, a modest 1.8% increase from $4.40 a year ago. Revenue is projected at $44.17 billion, reflecting a pullback from last year’s $50.2 billion.
Citigroup is expected to post more robust growth, with EPS projected to rise 6.6% year over year to $1.62 from $1.52. Revenue is also expected to improve slightly to $20.89 billion, up 3.9% from last year’s Q2.
Wells Fargo is forecast to earn $1.40 per share, a 5.3% increase over the prior-year quarter. Revenue is expected to remain flat at $20.78 billion, indicating stable core banking performance despite macroeconomic headwinds.
BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK), although not a traditional bank, is poised for a solid performance in asset management, with EPS expected to reach $10.80, representing a 4.2% increase over last year. Revenues are projected to be $5.34 billion, representing an 11% increase.
Other names in focus include Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE:BK), expected to post EPS of $1.76 on $4.83 billion in revenue, and State Street Corp. (NYSE:STT), which is projected to earn $2.37 per share on $3.35 billion in revenue—both reflecting ongoing resilience in custody and asset servicing segments.
The positive earnings outlook follows banks passing the Federal Reserve’s June stress tests with ease, prompting widespread dividend hikes.
The median dividend per share across major banks rose 7%, with standouts like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) lifting its quarterly payout 33% to $4.00.
JPMorgan raised its dividend by 7% to $1.50 and authorized a massive $50 billion stock buyback program.
Citigroup boosted its dividend by 7% and continues its $20 billion multi-year repurchase plan.
Analyst Views: Where’s The Opportunity?
Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Ramsden said Wells Fargo and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC) offer the best earnings upside for investors heading into 2026.
He sees Bank of America’s net interest income (NII) growing 7% annually through 2026, outperforming large bank peers, driven by stronger loan growth, favorable asset sensitivity and lower deposit costs. “We view BAC’s current ~1.5x 2026E price-to-tangible book value as attractive,” Ramsden said.
For Wells Fargo, the recent removal of its asset cap opens the door to deposit growth, capital markets expansion and cost savings. Ramsden believes these factors could boost earnings by as much as 19% and push return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) to as high as 17.3%.
Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala echoed bullish sentiment, saying the sector could see “positive EPS revisions and further stock re-rating” if capital expenditures and client activity pick up.
He flagged Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs as offering the best risk-reward among money center banks.
What’s At Stake For Investors?
With the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) up more than 8% year-to-date, bank stocks have already benefited from a more stable rate environment and strong capital positions.
However, any surprises in loan demand, expense growth, or trading revenue could quickly swing sentiment.
Tuesday’s results will set the tone for the rest of earnings season and could determine whether banks still have room to run, or whether Wall Street has already priced in the rebound.
