Gold futures rallied early Monday to fresh record highs near $3,970 per ounce, pushing year-to-date gains to 50%—marking the metal’s best performance since 1979—yet top analysts say the bull run is far from over.
Market veteran Ed Yardeni has sharply raised his price target for gold, saying the metal is “within shouting distance” of his initial $4,000 forecast for 2025.
With momentum accelerating, he now expects gold to reach $5,000 by 2026 and $10,000 by 2030.
“If it continues on its current path,” Yardeni said in an emailed note, “it could reach $10,000 by the end of the decade.”
Record Inflows Into Gold ETFs Fuel The Rally
Gold’s explosive rally has been fueled by unprecedented demand from investors seeking safety amid global uncertainty.
The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:GLD), the largest physically backed gold ETF, has seen massive inflows in 2025.
So far this year, the fund has collected $15.3 billion, beating the previous record set in 2020. On Sept. 19, the ETF registered its largest-ever single-day inflow at $2.2 billion.
Similarly, the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU) — the world’s second biggest gold-backed ETF — has already attracted $9.7 billion this year, outpacing inflows in its record year of 2020.
The fund recorded positive daily inflows in 20 of the last 21 sessions and posted weekly inflows in 12 of the past 13 weeks.
What’s Driving This Gold Rush?
According to Yardeni, there are key macroeconomic and geopolitical reasons behind his bullish gold outlook.
He pointed to President Donald Trump‘s return to office, and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding global trade and U.S. foreign policy.
“We reckoned that President Donald Trump’s attempts to reorder the world’s geopolitical order, including America’s relationships with its major trading partners, might be unsettling and bullish for gold,” Yardeni said.
Yardeni also said Trump’s efforts to pressure the Federal Reserve into cutting interest rates could compromise central bank independence, again favoring gold as a hedge.
Beyond politics, Yardeni highlighted China’s housing market collapse, which has triggered a “significant adverse wealth effect” for Chinese households. Many are now shifting their savings into gold as a safe-haven alternative.
India, too, has played a role. “The rising standard of living in India has increased wealth, thereby boosting demand for gold, which is widely regarded as a valuable asset,” Yardeni added.
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