Cruise line stocks are historically among the strongest seasonal performers in the S&P 500 heading into the second half of May, with Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE:RCL), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NCLH) and Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL) averaging double-digit returns over a three-week window.
Historical data from Seasonax platforms shows that from May 14 to early June, these three stocks have consistently outperformed over the past decade, with average gains north of 10%.
Among all S&P 500 constituents, they rank at the very top for late-spring seasonality. Seasonal strength is typically fueled by ramping summer demand, strong forward bookings, and an uptick in consumer travel spending ahead of peak vacation months.
Here are the top five S&P 500 stocks by average return in a three-week period starting from May 14:
In a note from late April, Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove pointed to a strong reversal in booking momentum despite broader macro uncertainty and uneven travel data across the sector.
April bookings at RCL exceeded the same month last year, while close-in bookings remained firm.
The company also reported stronger-than-usual onboard spending and pre-cruise purchases. Forward bookings for 2026 were tracking in line with 2024 levels but at higher prices—a sign of pricing power in an inflation-sensitive market.
With approximately 86% of the 2025 cruise calendar already booked, Dove’s team raised their estimates and lifted the stock’s price target from $245 to $260. However, they retained a slightly more cautious tone in 2026, pending more clarity on consumer resilience.
Since hitting tariff-driven lows on April 9, shares of RCL have surged 50% through mid-May —more than twice the gain of the S&P 500. CCL shares matched the performance during the same period.
NCLH Flags Demand Softness Amid Macro Pressures
In contrast, Norwegian Cruise Line is facing a different set of conditions.
In early May, Bank of America analyst Andrew Didora highlighted NCLH as the first in the group to show softness in its 12-month forward-booked position.
While this wasn’t viewed as unexpected—given the macro backdrop, consumer sentiment, and fare discounts introduced under the Oceania brand—it raised questions about forward pricing discipline across the cruise industry. Didora added that weakening demand isn’t isolated to NCLH, and other operators may be seeing similar dynamics.
BofA cut its 2025 and 2026 EPS forecasts for NCLH by 3% and 2%, now expecting $2.07 and $2.53, respectively. It revised the price objective down from $23 to $20 while maintaining a Neutral rating on concerns around leverage and top-line pressures.
Shares of NCLH have rallied 36% since April lows, underperforming versus peers.
