Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has had a bruising start to 2025, with its stock down about 18% year-to-date and underperforming the broader stock market by 22%—its worst half-year stretch since 2013.
But as July kicks off, investors may find a surprisingly bullish signal in an unexpected place: the calendar.
Why Has Apple Struggled So Much In 2025?
The first half of the year was defined by a perfect storm for Apple—trade tensions, delays in product innovation and a growing AI gap all chipped away at investor confidence.
One of the biggest headwinds came from President Donald Trump‘s renewed tariff agenda. In 2024, Apple generated 64% of its total revenue from overseas, with Greater China and Europe being among its most profitable regions. But in early 2025, trade-related uncertainty soured consumer sentiment abroad, especially in China.
The numbers confirm it: in the first quarter of 2025, Apple’s revenue from Greater China dropped 13% year-over-year to $16.37 billion, down from $18.25 billion during the same quarter of 2024. Local rivals, such as Huawei and Xiaomi, gained market share, while demand for iPhones softened.
Then came Apple’s AI problem. While Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) captured market buzz with new AI-driven features and products, Apple offered few details.
With no firm AI roadmap and delays around the iPhone 17 and the Vision Pro international rollout, many investors began rotating out of Apple into higher-growth tech names like Nvidia, Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) and Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)
Can Apple Turn Things Around In July?
On the surface, Apple seems out of favor. But dig into the seasonality, and July could offer the kind of bullish argument that flips the narrative.
Apple’s seasonal gains in July are unmatched. Over the past 20 years, the stock has ended July higher 17 times, with an average return of 7.6%.
Even more impressive, Apple is riding a 9-year winning streak in July. The best performances came in 2022 (+18.9%) and 2006 (+18.6%).
Expand the scope to 30 years, and the signal remains intact: Apple averaged a 7.3% gain in July, with a 77% win rate (23 positive closes out of 30).
The biggest drawdowns occurred in 2001 (-19.2%), 2002 (-13.9%), and 2008 (-5.1%)—but those were years defined by broader market crises.
More recently, pullbacks have been minor, like -3.3% in 2015 or -0.6% in 2004.
Apple’s relative performance versus the S&P 500 in July has been positive in 77% of the past 30 years, with an average outperformance of 5.8%.
No other S&P 500 stock has matched that consistency or magnitude over the same period.
In short, Apple hasn’t just risen in July—it’s crushed the market in July, time and time again. And with sentiment scraping cycle lows in 2025, history suggests July has often been Apple’s golden window for a rebound.
Year
Apple July Return (%)
AAPL vs. S&P 500 (%)
1994
27.12
+23.24
1995
-3.10
-6.08
1996
4.76
+9.78
1997
22.81
+13.91
1998
20.70
+22.12
1999
20.24
+24.22
2000
-2.98
-1.37
2001
-19.18
-18.13
2002
-13.88
-6.53
2003
10.60
+8.83
2004
-0.61
+2.91
2005
15.87
+11.84
2006
18.67
+18.07
2007
7.96
+11.53
2008
-5.07
-4.13
2009
14.72
+6.80
2010
2.27
+8.85
2011
16.33
+18.88
2012
4.58
+3.28
2013
14.12
+8.74
2014
2.87
+4.45
2015
-3.29
-5.16
2016
9.01
+3.75
2017
3.27
+1.96
2018
2.80
+3.58
2019
7.64
+1.40
2020
16.51
+6.08
2021
6.50
+2.37
2022
18.86
+9.92
2023
1.28
+3.06
2024
5.44
+1.18
Averagegain
7.3%
5.8%
Win ratio
77%
71%
Source: Author’s own elaboration based on TradingView data
