Fundstrat Global Advisors Head of Research Tom Lee forecasts the current bull market will extend through 2035, driven by millennial demographic trends and transformative technologies, including artificial intelligence and blockchain.
Demographics Drive Market Cycles
In an interview published on Thursday with The Master Investor Podcast, Lee outlined his evidence-based approach linking demographics to market performance. “Demographics really explains almost every bull market since 1890,” Lee said, noting that bull market peaks coincide with generational workforce peaks.
Lee pointed to historical patterns: baby boomers peaked in 1999, Generation X in 2018, while millennials won’t reach their peak until 2035. “Those are like rough waypoints for when actual major tops take place,” he explained.
New Bull Market Despite Recent Volatility
While markets have generally risen since 2020, Lee acknowledges that two 20% declines have created confusion. “This has been a really disrupted recovery since the 2020 lows,” he said, identifying a new bull market beginning after the February-April 2025 correction.
Current market performance supports optimism. The S&P 500, as tracked by SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) closed Thursday at 6,501.86, up 10.79% year-to-date and 85.34% over five years.
The Nasdaq Composite, as tracked by Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) gained 12.57% year-to-date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as tracked by SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) advanced 7.65%.
Lee sees three key drivers supporting his decade-long outlook. First, a surge in the U.S. prime-age workforce as millennials and Generation Z enter peak earning years. Second, substantial wealth transfers over the next 20 years will shift from credit to equity exposure.
Third, the U.S. leads major structural changes in AI and blockchain technologies. Lee expects these trends to boost the financial sector, potentially reaching 40% of the S&P 500, alongside healthcare sector benefits.
Market Validation of Long-Term Bullishness
Research from Carson Group‘s Ryan Detrick supports extended bull market potential. Analyzing 50 years of data, Detrick found that bull markets lasting into their third year typically continue for at least five years total, with the current 31-month bull market showing similar patterns to historical precedents.
Lee’s track record includes correctly identifying the 2009 market bottom within a month, demonstrating his demographic-focused methodology’s effectiveness in navigating major market transitions.
