Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) could show how the macroeconomic environment is affecting consumers who buy their daily coffee at restaurants or opt to brew it at home when the company reports its second-quarter financial results on Thursday after the market close.
Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Starbucks to report second-quarter revenue of $8.86 billion, up from $8.56 billion in the same quarter last year, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company beat Street consensus estimates in the first quarter while missing estimates in four of the last five quarters. Over the last 10 quarters, the coffee company has missed analyst estimates six times.
Analysts expect the company to report second-quarter earnings per share of 50 cents, down from 68 cents per share in last year’s second quarter.
The company beat first-quarter earnings per share estimates while missing estimates in three of the last five quarters. Over the last 10 quarters, the coffee company has beaten analyst estimates five times.
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What Analysts Are Saying: Many analysts have been lowering price targets on Starbucks ahead of the quarterly financial results.
Other analysts are mixed with some upgrades and downgrades ahead of the report.
Jefferies analyst Andy Barish recently upgraded Starbucks stock from Underperform to Hold with a price target of $76.
The analyst said Starbucks could have a modest earnings rebound over the next two years with a new CFO and a lack of formal guidance. Barish said the rebound could take time to show results.
A “Back to Starbucks” initiative and new CEO Brian Niccol could lead to investments in new areas as the company works to achieve a goal of four-minute service for customers.
While Barish said the recovery could take longer than many investors anticipate, the analyst said the stock valuation looks reasonable, trading at around 20 times estimated fiscal 2027 earnings.
Here are other recent analyst ratings on Starbucks and their price targets:
- Barclays: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $124 to $106
- Wells Fargo: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $125 to $100
- Stifel: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $114 to $103
- Citigroup: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $100 to $88.
- Baird: Downgraded from Outperform to Neutral, lowered the price target from $114 to $85
Key Items to Watch: One of the key items to watch for Starbuck’s financial results will likely be store traffic and same-store sales. On February 10, Starbucks offered free coffee to reward members for “Starbucks Monday.”
The date, which came the day after the Super Bowl, saw foot traffic spike 26% over the average Monday, according to data from Placer.ai. The promotion likely led to increased store spending, as some may have offset the free coffee by spending on other food and beverage items.
More importantly, the promotion likely led to an increase in the company’s loyalty program membership, which could be highlighted in the current quarter.
Another Placer.ai survey showed that coffee chains are seeing increased visit rates in the first calendar quarter of 2025. The bad news is that Starbucks saw a 0.9% drop in visits during the time period, according to the report.
Smaller coffee chains like 7 Brew Coffee, Scooter’s Coffee and Dutch Bros Inc (NYSE:BROS) could be eating market share from Starbucks, according to the report. Publicly traded Dutch Bros saw a 13.4% year-over-year gain in visit rates in the first calendar quarter, which could be good news ahead of their first-quarter financial results, due on May 7.
Starbucks had declines in comparable stores across North America, international locations and China in the first fiscal quarter. Analysts and investors will be closely monitoring to see if sales improved in any of the regions.
Analysts and investors will also be hoping for an update on reports the coffee chain is exploring a sale of its China business. An update on the process could send shares higher as analysts grasp the valuation metric and interested parties become aware of the segment.
SBUX Price Action: Starbucks stock is up 0.2% to $83.94 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $71.55 to $117.46. Starbucks stock is down 9.0% year-to-date in 2025 and down 5% over the last year.
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