Electric vehicle company Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) could illustrate the fallout from the end of federal EV tax credits when it reports second-quarter results Tuesday after market close.
Here are the analyst earnings estimates, what analysts are saying ahead of the report and the key items to watch.
Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Rivian to report second-quarter revenue of $1.29 billion. That’s up from $1.16 billion in last year’s second quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in two straight quarters and eight of the last 10 quarters.
Analysts also expect the company to report a loss of 65 cents per share in the second quarter. In the second quarter of last year, Rivian reported a loss of $1.13 per share.
The automaker beat analyst estimates for earnings per share in two straight quarters and seven of the last 10 quarters overall.
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What Analysts Are Saying: A high valuation and shrinking government subsidies led to JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman singling out Rivian as a short idea for the second half of 2025.
Brinkman said Rivian represents a disconnect between expectations and reality.
With high cash burn and EBITDA losses, Brinkman sees a potential struggle for Rivian to overcome rising tariffs and the loss of EV subsidies in the future.
Without government support, the entire electric vehicle sector could see pressure. That means increased competition and potential poor stock performance for companies that are not yet close to profitability.
UBS analysts maintained a Neutral rating on Rivian ahead of the earnings report. They raised the price target from $12 to $13.
The analysts point to the upcoming 2026 launch of the R2—expected to be priced around $45,000—as a key reason to maintain a long-term positive outlook on Rivian, especially given that affordability remains a top concern for potential buyers.
Key Items to Watch: With Rivian expanding its factories ahead of the R2 launch next year, there aren’t many catalysts that can move the stock as much as the new vehicle launch.
Rivian recently announced it will establish an East Coast headquarters in Atlanta. The company also announced the construction of a new service center in Quebec to support its Canadian expansion strategy.
The company has already announced second-quarter production and deliveries. It produced 5,979 vehicles and delivered 10,661 cars. Rivian reaffirmed a full-year guidance of 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles delivered.
Investors and analysts will likely want to hear more about this year’s guidance and next year’s and what the impact of the removal of EV tax credits could mean. Along with lower incentives for consumers to buy vehicles, Rivian may lose a key revenue stream of ZEV credit sales that other automakers purchase. In 2024, ZEV credits were worth $325 million for Rivian.
A recent report said Rivian’s July sales were up 20% from June and, while down year-over-year, represented the company’s best monthly sales total since September 2024. Any commentary on strong demand in July and from now on could help with updated guidance and offsetting lower production by the company in late 2025.
Without a major update on the R2 or improved guidance for 2025 or initial 2026 guidance, investors may head for the exit and await more positive catalysts for the EV company next year.
RIVN Price Action: Rivian stock was up 0.2% to $12.41 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $9.50 to $17.14. Rivian stock is down 6.3% year-to-date in 2025.
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