Restaurant giant McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) could show the importance of value meals and new product launches when the company announces third-quarter financial results on Wednesday before market open.
• See what the experts say about MCD stock here.
Here are the earnings estimates, analyst ratings and key items to watch ahead of the quarterly results.
Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect McDonald’s to report third-quarter revenue of $7.09 billion, up from $6.87 billion in last year’s third quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in six of the last 10 quarters, including the most recently reported second quarter.
Analysts expect McDonald’s to report third-quarter earnings per share of $3.33, up from $3.23 in last year’s third quarter.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in two straight quarters and in eight of the past 10 quarters overall.
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What Analysts Are Saying: Analysts have been mostly lowering their price targets on McDonald’s stock ahead of the quarterly results.
Here are recent analyst ratings on McDonald’s and their price targets:
- Mizuho: Initiated with Neutral rating, with price target of $300
- BTIG: Maintained Neutral rating, with no price target
- Barclays: Maintained Overweight rating, raised price target from $360 to $362
- Citigroup: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $381 to $375
- Wells Fargo: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $350 to $340
Key Items to Watch: A report from Placer.ai shows McDonald’s having fewer visits during the third quarter, which could impact the company’s revenue and earnings per share.
The report says McDonald’s suffered a 3.5% year-over-year decline in visits in the third quarter, with same store visits down 4% year-over-year in the quarter.
After seeing better quick service restaurant (QSR) visitor figures in the second quarter, the report shows visits declined 1.8% in July, 4.4% in August and 4.4% in September on a year-over-year basis. That compares to QSR industry average declines of 1%, 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively, for July, August and September.
Placer.ai says the QSR category is seeing headwinds like inflation, shifts in consumer behavior, growth of weight-loss drugs and value-menu fatigue.
“McDonald’s has not been immune from these challenges,” the report said.
Recall that McDonald’s second quarter included strength from a collaboration with “A Minecraft Movie” with the Minecraft Meal highlighted as helping boost sales and traffic in April. The company reported U.S. comparable sales were up 2.5% year-over-year in the second quarter, which was good news after U.S. comp sales were down 3.6% year-over-year in the first quarter.
The good news for McDonald’s and its investors could be a hopeful return to growth in the fourth quarter, potentially helped by the return of extra value meals in September and the return of Monopoly for the first time since 2014.
More than 30 menu items are eligible for Monopoly game pieces during the promotion, which began on Oct. 6. The game features digital game pieces and physical game pieces with a focus on getting users to sign up for the loyalty app.
“Our fans have been clamoring for the return of MONOPOLY at McDonald’s, and we’re thrilled to bring it back with a modern, digital spin,” McDonald’s USA Chief Marketing and Customer Experience Officer Alyssa Buetikofer said. “The game is a core memory for so many customers, and we’re excited that those memories can now be shared across generations.”
McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski highlighted just how important the loyalty program is for future sales growth during the company’s second-quarter earnings call.
“Roughly a quarter of our business in the U.S. is on our loyalty program,” Kempczinski said, as reported by CNN.
The McDonald’s CEO quantified the importance by saying non-loyalty U.S. customers visit McDonald’s 10.5 times a year on average. Rewards members average 26 visits to McDonald’s restaurants per year, more than double non-loyalty members, as reported by Customer Experience.
“Getting more and more consumers to be in our loyalty program — that’s how we’re going to drive this business, because it’s going to be frequency-led growth.”
The company had around 185 million global loyalty members at the end of the second quarter, with a goal to have 250 million active loyalty members by the end of 2027.
While the third-quarter results may not be great for McDonald’s, a hope could be that value meals and Monopoly could factor into strong fourth-quarter guidance and the Monopoly game could grow the loyalty base to help boost return visits going forward.
MCD Price Action: McDonald’s stock closed down 0.66% to $296.37 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $276.53 to $326.32. McDonald’s shares are up 2.24% year-to-date in 2025.
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