The Triple Crown is among the highest pinnacles of achievement in sports.
Since 1919, there have been only 13 winners. Can 2024 Kentucky Derby champion Mystik Dan‘s name echo with the likes of Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Justify amid this year’s limited field?
The Trend is Not Your Friend: The Triple Crown is a challenging feat. Horses must win the Kentucky Derby in early May, the Preakness Stakes in mid-May and the Belmont Stakes in June.
This is a tall task, partly due to the differences in course length among the three races. The Kentucky Derby is 1.25 miles long, while the Preakness Stakes is the shortest at 1.1875 miles.
The finale at the Belmont Stakes is the longest, at 1.5 miles.
Since Justify in 2018, no horse who won the Kentucky Derby has been able to follow up their win at the Preakness. To win the Triple Crown, Mystik Dan must first break this streak at Saturday’s Preakness Stakes.
Baffling Baffert: Controversial trainer Bob Baffert’s horses have won the last eight Preakness Stakes. His horse Muth, who was originally favored to win this year’s Preakness, was scratched after reporting a high fever per ESPN.
His other entry, Imagination, does not seem to be as strong of a contender.
No Pimlico Special: The Preakness is held at the Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. It is not uncommon for horses whose home track is Pimlico to skip the Kentucky Derby to race at the Preakness, often succeeding. There are no such cases this year.
Fresh Legs: Horses whose home track is not Pimlico but still skip the Kentucky Derby also find success at the Preakness.
Preakness winners this century who did not compete at the Derby include Red Bullet in 2000, Bernardini in 2006, Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Cloud Computing in 2017, Rombauer in 2021, Early Voting in 2022 and National Treasure in 2023
Only three horses in 2024’s field raced at the Derby: Champion Mystik Dan, fourth place finisher Catching Freedom, and 17th place finisher Just Steel.
He’s A Mudder: With rain forecasted on Saturday, Mystik Dan could have an edge due to his prior success racing in the mud; he won the Southwest Stakes in January on a muddy course.
Closing it Out: Triple Crown winners must pull through in three highly competitive races. A win is a monumental event that occurs infrequently. If Mystik Dan can edge out wins at the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes, it would be among the most exciting sporting accomplishments of the year.
With Mystik Dan as the favorite at low odds, perhaps playing him in exactas with Catching Freedom and some other long shots may yield a good return. Just remember: Mystik coupled with the second favorite in the Derby, Siera Leone, returned $256.58 on a $2 wager.
Joel Elconin contributed to this report.
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Image by Clarence Alford from Pixabay
