Restaurant company Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (NASDAQ:CBRL) will try to get investors and analysts focused on growth plans instead of a poorly received logo change when the company reports fourth-quarter financial results after market close on Wednesday.
Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying ahead of the report and key items to watch.
Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Cracker Barrel to report fourth-quarter revenue of $855.3 million, down from $894.4 million in last year’s fourth quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company missed analyst estimates for revenue in the third quarter and has missed revenue estimates in seven of the last 10 quarters.
Analysts expect the company to report earnings of 80 cents per share in the fourth quarter, down from 98 cents per share in last year’s fourth quarter.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in two straight quarters and in five of the last 10 quarters overall.
Read Also: Cracker Barrel Backtracks On Store Remodels: ‘The Vintage Americana You Love Will Always Be Here’
What Analysts Are Saying: The setup for Cracker Barrel is “highly uncertain” heading into the earnings report, Truist analyst Jake Bartlett said in a new investor note.
The analyst maintained a Buy rating and lowered the price target from $65 to $62.
“There are some cracks, but the Cracker Barrel bull case still holds,” Bartlett said.
He said backlash to the logo and branding changes has led to a “significant” drop in sales. Potentially saving the backlash and sales drop could be margin guidance and shareholder returns, Bartlett added.
“A likely ‘refresh’ program takes its place, supporting sales while freeing up cash to return to shareholders.”
Bartlett noted that menu and service improvements could also be keys to the earnings report and guidance. The analyst said these improvements could lead to increased same-store sales going forward, along with margin improvements. “Fallout from rebranding backlash does not change our bullish investment case.”
The analyst noted that there are “low investor expectations” for the earnings report following the backlash, and an increase in cash return to shareholders could also be a key factor to watch for a potential short squeeze.
Cracker Barrel previously lowered its quarterly dividend to help fund its “transformation plan.” The analyst sees a potential increase in the dividend or share buybacks to increase investor appetite for the stock.
“We view the impact of CBRL’s rebranding backlash as a net negative but largely temporary.”
Key Items to Watch: Cracker Barrel previously announced plans to change its logo and décor, two items that were later backtracked after public backlash. The rebranding compelled many people to speak out, including President Trump and a co-founder of the company.
The rebranding likely hurt sales in the short term. Data from Placer.ai shows Cracker Barrel restaurants had a 0.6% month-over-month drop in visits in August and a 0.2% drop on a year-over-year basis.
Investors and analysts will be looking to see if the rebranding backlash hurt growth momentum. The restaurant reported a 0.5% year-over-year increase in sales in the third quarter. Comparable store restaurant sales were up 1.0% year-over-year in the third quarter.
This marked the fourth consecutive quarter of positive comparable store restaurant sales growth for the company, a streak that could likely end in the fourth quarter.
In recent interviews, Cracker Barrel CEO Julie Felss Masino has highlighted the company’s value proposition, with the average bill around $15, compared to an industry average of $27.
On prediction market Kalshi, the odds that Masino is out as the Cracker Barrel CEO by the end of the year are currently 17%, down from 30% in late August.
Kalshi also has odds for what will be said during Cracker Barrel’s earnings call. Top bets include words like menu (98%), price (90%), growth (89%), logo (89%), tariff (81%) and breakfast (78%).
Some of the less popular predictions include words like rebrand (32%), takeout (19%), Trump (19%) and DEI (6%).
CBRL Price Action: Cracker Barrel stock is down 1.8% to $51.47 on Tuesday, versus a 52-week trading range of $33.86 to $71.93. Shares are down 15.2% over the last month and down 6.3% year-to-date in 2025.
Read Next:
Photo: Shutterstock
