Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) could show the company’s leadership in the cryptocurrency ecosystem with first-quarter financial results after market close Wednesday.
Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Coinbase to report first-quarter revenue of $2.13 billion, up from $1.64 billion in last year’s first quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company beat analyst estimates for revenue in the last reported quarter, while beating estimates in eight of the last 10 quarters overall.
Analysts expect Coinbase to report first-quarter earnings per share of $2.12, up from $1.65 in last year’s first quarter. The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in eight straight quarters and eight of the last 10 quarters overall.
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What Analysts Are Saying: Rosenblatt analyst Chris Brendler recently warned that “crypto winter” could be underway and it could hurt momentum for Coinbase stock.
The analyst said sentiment on crypto has reversed with “sharply rising macro concerns.”
Brendler reiterated a Buy rating on the stock while lowering the price target from $305 to $290.
The analyst said Coinbase’s trading volumes in March were likely lower than expected. Brendler sees a rebound in crypto-related trading activity in the second half of 2025.
“In our view, legislative clarity will accelerate blockchain technology adoption and COIN will be a primary beneficiary,” Brendler said.
Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro sees a balanced risk/reward for Coinbase heading into the earnings report. The analyst took over coverage of Coinbase at Goldman Sachs after the stock was previously covered by Will Nance.
Yaro gave Coinbase a Neutral rating and a $195 price target.
With pure-play exposure to the cryptocurrency sector, Yaro sees long-term growth for Coinbase as the crypto ecosystem expands.
“We are cautiously optimistic on COIN, but see a balance of upside and downside risks,” Yaro said.
Yaro highlights a positive regulatory environment for crypto that could support Coinbase’s growth, but also be a negative.
“Longer-term, regulatory reform could increase the crypto TAM, but also bring in competitors from across financial services. Competition could pressure COIN’s market share and pricing over time.”
Here are other recent analyst ratings on Coinbase and their price targets:
- Citigroup: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $350 to $270
- JPMorgan: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $344 to $276
- Benchmark: Initiated with Buy rating, $252 price target
Key Items to Watch: Analysts and investors will be looking at many items in Coinbase’s earnings report with the price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trading strong in January before falling in March.
Transaction revenue was up 172% quarter-over-quarter in the fourth quarter. This could be a key item to show whether Coinbase continues its leadership in the cryptocurrency ecosystem and also if traders were active in the first quarter with Donald Trump inaugurated and high volatility during the quarter.
Subscription and services has been a bright spot for Coinbase in recent quarters, bringing the company high-margin recurring revenue. Subscription and services revenue of $641 million in the fourth quarter was up 15% quarter-over-quarter and came in ahead of company guidance. The company is guiding for first-quarter subscription and services revenue in a range of $685 million to $765 million.
Bitcoin made up 27% of both trading volume and transaction revenue in the fourth quarter. This was down from 37% and 35% respectively, in the third quarter. The new quarterly results will show if Bitcoin regained its dominance or saw lower activity due to other cryptocurrencies.
XRP Token (CRYPTO: XRP) could be another item to watch after making up 14% of transaction revenue in the fourth quarter and seeing strong demand from Coinbase users.
COIN Price Action: Coinbase stock is down 0.7% to $195.47 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $142.58 to $349.75. Coinbase stock is down 21.4% year-to-date in 2025 and down 8.9% over the last year.
The drop in Coinbase’s stock price comes with Bitcoin up 3.1% year-to-date and up 54.5% over the last year.
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