Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, sees Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) on a strong upward path as the U.S. presidential election approaches, bolstered by growing interest and shifting macroeconomic conditions.
What Happened: “Our bet is that this is a very bullish setup for Bitcoin into the election,” Sigel told CNBC on Monday, pointing out that factors such as Trump’s increasing popularity in prediction markets and renewed optimism in the crypto sector are helping drive demand.
According to Sigel, Trump’s position as the more pro-crypto candidate, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris, is likely fueling confidence among crypto investors.
Sigel highlighted Bitcoin’s strongest long-term correlations: a negative relationship with the U.S. dollar and a positive relationship with money supply growth, which has accelerated recently due to the Federal Reserve’s pivot on interest rates.
This increase in money supply is contributing to Bitcoin’s upward momentum, along with a “seller’s exhaustion” phase following significant sales by both the German and U.S. governments.
Sigel described these government Bitcoin sales, totaling around $2 billion, as “spiteful,” referring to seizures and subsequent sales intended to prevent criminal misuse of the asset. “That has eased, and I think the election is helping,” he added.
Sigel also pointed out that Bitcoin’s historical volatility pattern tends to remain low before an election, followed by a post-election rally once results are clear.
He compared the current situation to the 2020 election cycle when Bitcoin initially lagged but then surged as clarity emerged.
Sigel believes that, after the election results are finalized, a potential U.S. sovereign debt downgrade by Moody’s could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin, attracting buyers looking for alternatives to traditional fiat currencies.
“Once the election result is finalized, Moody’s is going to downgrade U.S. sovereign debt,” he noted, hinting at a possible “high vol rally” that could bring Bitcoin to new highs.
Sigel’s outlook aligns with projections from other analysts, including Standard Chartered, which anticipates that Bitcoin could reach $73,000 by Election Day on Nov. 5 and potentially surge to $80,000 shortly after if Trump secures a victory.
Standard Chartered’s analysis points to heavy open interest in Bitcoin options with $80,000 call strike prices expiring on Dec. 27, suggesting strong market anticipation of a post-election rally.
“Our estimates show a total price increase of around 10% from the pre-election price,” potentially pushing Bitcoin to $80,000 in the days following the election, Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of crypto research, said.
Looking further ahead, Standard Chartered’s year-end target for Bitcoin is $125,000, contingent on a Republican sweep in both the presidential and congressional races.
This bullish projection hinges on Republicans creating a favorable environment for digital assets, as many investors view the party as more supportive of crypto-friendly policies.
However, the outlook shifts if Harris wins; in that case, Standard Chartered anticipates an initial dip in Bitcoin prices, followed by a recovery to $75,000 by year-end, reflecting cautious optimism rather than a rally.
Sigel further highlighted Bitcoin’s growing appeal beyond U.S. borders, especially among BRICS nations.
He pointed out that three new BRICS members—Argentina, UAE and Ethiopia—have started investing in Bitcoin mining as part of national initiatives, marking a significant step toward de-dollarization.
“BRICS GDP is now greater than the combined GDP of the G7,” he said, adding that some BRICS countries are exploring Bitcoin as a medium for global trade.
Russia, for instance, has announced plans to fund Bitcoin mining infrastructure to facilitate trade settlements in Bitcoin, signaling a shift toward alternative financial systems that bypass traditional fiat currencies.
What’s Next: These themes will be further discussed at Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19, where experts will explore the role of Bitcoin in an evolving global economy.
