Goldman Sachs urged investors to focus on Chinese companies expanding overseas, citing a weaker yuan, cost advantages, and China’s strength in global supply chains as growth catalysts.
In a report led by analysts Si Fu and Kinger Lau, Goldman identified 25 top picks, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL), and BYD Co Ltd (OTC:BYDDY) (OTC:BYDDF), as key beneficiaries of this “going global” trend.
Goldman said these companies — spanning e-commerce, capital goods, and healthcare — have already gained nearly 40% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index’s 29% and the CSI 300 Index’s 16% rise, SCMP reported on Monday.
Also Read: Alibaba Stock Surges 95% As Company Doubles Down On AI, Cloud
Overseas Expansion to Boost Earnings Growth
The bank expects its overseas expansion to accelerate earnings growth by about 1.5% annually through 2028 as firms diversify beyond China’s saturated domestic market.
Goldman highlighted Alibaba’s overseas revenue doubling to 13% in 2023 from 7% in 2021 and CATL’s climbing to 30% from 21%, reflecting their rising global competitiveness.
While Goldman acknowledged that potential 100% U.S. tariffs under Trump’s trade agenda could trim short-term profits by around 10%, it said Chinese firms’ international diversification should offset the impact over time.
Alibaba Stock Soars on AI and Cloud Momentum
Alibaba is considered the tech barometer of China. The stock gained 97% year-to-date, topping NYSE Composite index’s over 12% returns as its cloud unit and AI model integration across its business segments and other enterprises fuel upside for the stock.
Goldman Sachs, Daiwa Securities, and China International Capital Corporation (CICC) expressed optimism over Alibaba’s cloud growth, AI breakthroughs, and early e-commerce recovery as key catalysts behind its rally.
Goldman Sachs raised its cloud revenue growth forecasts to 31–38% through fiscal 2028, citing advances in multimodal AI models and a diversified chip supply.
Daiwa Securities projected Alibaba Cloud revenue to climb 30% year-over-year in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 and expects operating losses to peak soon before narrowing on lower marketing and logistics costs.
CICC forecast 3.8% revenue growth for the same quarter and 30% cloud growth, saying new AI products and hardware unveiled at Alibaba’s Apsara Conference will support sustained profit gains.
Price Action: BABA stock was trading lower by 0.62% to $166.02 premarket at last check Monday.
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