It should have been a clean beat. Meta Platforms, Inc.(NASDAQ:META) posted 33% revenue growth to $56.31 billion, delivered $32.23 billion in operating cash flow, and guided the next quarter as high as $61 billion.
And then came the line that mattered.
The Number That Changed Everything
Buried in the release was the new capex range: $125 billion to $145 billion for 2026, up from $115 billion to $135 billion. That was enough.
The stock dropped sharply after hours—not because the business is weak, but because the cost of staying in the AI race is rising faster than investors are comfortable with.
This isn’t happening in isolation. Big tech’s AI spend is now pushing toward $700 billion, and markets are starting to draw a line between spending and returns.
But the reaction to Meta stood out.
Alphabet Inc.(NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) raised its capex outlook to as much as $190 billion and rallied.
Microsoft Corporation(NASDAQ:MSFT) flagged rising AI infrastructure costs and held steady.
The technical setup had started to crack even before the print.
After a strong run, the stock has now pulled back sharply, slipping toward key moving averages. Momentum has rolled over—MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) is retreating, RSI (relative strength index) is falling into the low 40s. This isn’t just noise; it’s a shift in trend strength.
Compared to peers, the divergence is becoming clearer. While names tied more directly to monetizable AI—like cloud—continue to hold structure, Meta is starting to lag.
Show Me The Payoff Moment
That gap comes down to visibility.
Alphabet and Microsoft can point to cloud revenue as a near-term return on AI infrastructure. Meta’s payoff is harder to model—spread across ad systems, engagement improvements, and longer-cycle bets like Llama.
The fundamentals are still solid. Growth is there. Cash flow is strong. But the market is recalibrating what it wants to see next.
Because in this phase of the AI trade, spending alone isn’t enough.
