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By Sinéad Carew and Tom Wilson

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -Treasury yields fell on Wednesday while the dollar gained and MSCI’s global stock index barely rose as U.S. Federal Reserve officials provided mixed messages on monetary policy while third-quarter data provided encouraging signs for the economy.

In U.S. equities, the S&P 500 edged lower and Nasdaq dipped while the Dow rose slightly as investors waited for a key inflation reading due out early on Thursday.

Commerce Department data however, provided some optimism earlier on Wednesday, with U.S. gross domestic product rising at a 5.2% annualized rate in the third quarter, revised up from the previously reported 4.9% and marking the fastest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021.

The GDP report also confirmed inflation was trending lower, with slight downward revisions to measures watched by the Fed for monetary policy, suggesting a so-called Goldilocks scenario to Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.

“The improving data is earning the possibility of some recalibration of policy next year. That’s what the market is pricing in. If the data continues on this path it will earn modest rate cuts next year. That’s helping to ignite risk appetites,” said Melson.

While the Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday sent mixed messages, investors still focused on comments made on Tuesday by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, an influential and previously hawkish voice at the U.S. central bank. Waller had said rate cuts could begin in months if inflation keeps easing.

On Wednesday the Fed’s Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he expects U.S. growth to slow and inflation to continue to ease on the back of tight monetary policy.

In contrast, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday he is “skeptical” that inflation is on its way down to 2%, and wants the option of another rate hike in case inflation gains steam.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 13.44 points, or 0.04%, to 35,430.42, the S&P 500 lost 4.31 points, or 0.09%, at 4,550.58 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 23.27 points, or 0.16%, to 14,258.49.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.010%.

U.S. Treasury yields fell with the benchmark 10-year note on track for a third straight session of declines as the latest economic growth reading failed to upend market expectations that a Fed rate cut could be on the horizon.

Benchmark 10-year notes were down 7.3 basis points at 4.263%, from 4.336% late on Tuesday. The 30-year bond was last down 7.8 basis points to yield 4.4463%, from 4.524%. The 2-year note was last was down 9.9 basis points to yield 4.6372%, from 4.736%.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against other major currencies, climbed from its lowest level in more than three months as investors consolidated positions after four days of losses, with support from the U.S. economic data.

The dollar index rose 0.205%, with the euro down 0.16% to $1.0972. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.15% versus the greenback at 147.24 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.2696, up 0.02% on the day.

“Given how sharply the dollar has sold off the last few weeks, it’s only natural that we could be seeing a bit of profit taking,” said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi US in Boston.

Oil prices rose more than $1 as investors looked past a jump in U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate stock piles and focused on an upcoming meeting of OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia.

Talks ahead of the meeting were focusing on additional cuts, although details have yet to be agreed, sources close to the group told Reuters.

U.S. crude settled up 1.9% at $77.86 per barrel and Brent finished at $83.10, up 1.74% on the day.

Elsewhere, spot gold shot earlier in the day to a roughly seven-month high of $2,051 an ounce and was last up 0.2% to $2,044.16 an ounce. U.S. gold futures gained 0.28% to $2,045.70 an ounce.

(Reporting by Sinéad Carew, Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York, Tom Wilson in London and Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Josie Kao, Nick Zieminski and Richard Chang)

By Shariq Khan

BENGALURU (Reuters) – Oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel on Wednesday as investors focused their attention on expectations of fresh supply cuts from OPEC+ and looked past a jump in U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate stockpiles.

Brent crude futures advanced by $1.42, or 1.7%, to settle at $83.10 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.45, or 1.9%, to settle at $77.86 a barrel.

Oil markets have found support from hopes of some form of a price-supportive resolution from the OPEC+ group, Kpler analyst Matt Smith said.

Members of OPEC+, which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies such as Russia, are due to hold a policy meeting on Thursday. Talks ahead of the meeting were focusing on additional cuts, although details were yet to be agreed, sources close to the group told Reuters.

Another media report earlier said that the cut could be of as much as 1 million barrels a day.

“All eyes are on the Nov. 30 OPEC meeting, and the fine details will matter,” CFRA analyst Stewart Glickman said.

The Energy Information Administration reported a surprise build in U.S. crude oil and distillate fuel stocks last week, indicating weak demand. Gasoline stocks also rose by more than expected, the data showed. [EIA/S]

However, the impact of those builds was neutralised by large draws in other refined products, like residual fuel oil, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

A severe storm in the Black Sea region has disrupted up to 2 million bpd of oil exports from Kazakhstan and Russia, according to state officials and port agent data, raising the prospect of short-term supply tightness.

Kazakhstan’s largest oilfields are cutting combined daily oil output by 56% from Nov. 27, the Kazakh energy ministry said.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan; Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Yuka Obayashi and Muyu Xu; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Kirsten Donovan and Daniel Wallis)

By Shariq Khan

BENGALURU (Reuters) -Oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel on Wednesday as investors focused their attention on an upcoming OPEC+ output policy meeting and looked past a jump in U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate stockpiles.

Brent crude futures were up $1.01, or 1.2%, to $82.69 a barrel by 1:34 p.m. ET (1834 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.16, or 1.5%, to $77.57 a barrel.

Prices were lifted by a media report that the OPEC+ group, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, was considering new oil production cuts of as much as 1 million barrels a day, traders said.

The OPEC+ policy meeting is scheduled for Thursday and news surrounding its outcome is likely to be the main driver for oil price fluctuations in the near-term, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Oil benchmarks had gained about 2% on Tuesday as traders anticipated that OPEC+ would extend or deepen supply cuts.

“All eyes are on the Nov. 30 OPEC meeting, and the fine details will matter,” CFRA analyst Stewart Glickman said.

The Energy Information Administration reported a surprise build in U.S. crude oil and distillate fuel stocks last week, indicating weak demand. Gasoline stocks also rose by more than expected, the data showed. [EIA/S]

However, the impact of those builds was neutralised by large draws in other refined products, like residual fuel oil, Staunovo said.

A severe storm in the Black Sea region has disrupted up to 2 million bpd of oil exports from Kazakhstan and Russia, according to state officials and port agent data, raising the prospect of short-term supply tightness.

Kazakhstan’s largest oilfields are cutting combined daily oil output by 56% from Nov. 27, the Kazakh energy ministry said.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan; Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Yuka Obayashi and Muyu Xu; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Kirsten Donovan)

(Reuters) – Canadian miner First Quantum Minerals suspended commercial production at its flagship Cobre Panama mine on Tuesday after the Panama Supreme Court ruled its contract to operate the mine as unconstitutional.

The contested contract gave First Quantum a 20-year mining right with an option to extend for another 20 years in return for $375 million in annual revenue to Panama.

Cobre Panama accounts for about 1% of global copper production and contributes to about 5% of Panama’s gross domestic product.

Here’s a look at the events since December last year as the ruling puts the company on the long and unpredictable road of international arbitration:

2022

Dec. 15: Panama orders First Quantum to pause operations at Cobre Panama after missing a deadline to finalize a deal that would have increased payments to the government.

Dec. 24: First Quantum starts arbitration process against Panama.

2023

Feb 23: First Quantum suspends ore processing at the mine.

March 8: Panama and First Quantum agree on the final text for a contract to operate the mine.

March 15: First Quantum resumes operations at Cobre Panama.

Sept. 9: First Quantum reaches a deal over wages with the workers union at Cobre Panama.

Oct. 3: Panama’s government authorizes the withdrawal of the proposed contract to regulate operations of First Quantum’s local unit.

Oct 10: Panama’s cabinet approves a modified version of the government’s contract.

Oct 20: Panama’s President Laurentino Cortizo gives final approval of a law authorizing a new long-term contract for the mine.

Oct 24: Police arrest nearly 50 protesters in confrontations over the new contract.

Oct 27: Cortizo says the country will reject all new mining projects after widespread protests against the deal.

Oct 29: Cortizo says Panama will hold a referendum to decide whether to scrap the contract with the Canadian miner.

Oct 30: Panama’s electoral court says currently there are not “conditions” to hold a referendum on the disputed mining contract.

Nov 2: Panama’s lawmakers scratch provisions to cancel the contract with First Quantum from a proposed bill banning new mining concessions in the country.

Nov. 7: Two people taking part in an anti-government protest in Panama are shot dead by an assailant.

Nov. 13: First Quantum says reduced ore processing at mine as protesters block access to ports.

Nov. 16: The company and workers at the mine reach an agreement guaranteeing salaries as protests continue.

Nov. 24: Panama’s top court starts deliberations to rule on several constitutional challenges to the contract.

Nov. 27: The company says it hopes to avoid arbitration with Panama’s government by resolving disagreements during a 90-day period for talks.

Nov. 28: Panama Supreme Court rules First Quantum’s contract to operate the copper mine as “unconstitutional”. Cortizo government to proceed with the shutdown of the mine. First Quantum says it is suspending commercial production at the mine amid protests.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen, Sourasis Bose and Roshia Sabu in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Arun Koyyur)

By Sinéad Carew and Tom Wilson

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -MSCI’s global equities index was gaining slightly on Wednesday while Treasury yields fell as third quarter data provided encouraging signs for the economy even as U.S. Federal Reserve officials provided mixed messages on monetary policy.

Commerce Department data showed U.S. gross domestic product(GDP) rose at a 5.2% annualized rate last quarter, revised up from the previously reported 4.9% pace and marking the fastest pace of expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021.

The GDP report also confirmed inflation was trending lower, with slight downward revisions to measures watched by the Fed for monetary policy, suggesting a so-called Goldilocks scenario to Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.

“The improving data is earning the possibility of some recalibration of policy next year. That’s what the market is pricing in. If the data continues on this path it will earn modest rate cuts next year. That’s helping to ignite risk appetites,” said Melson.

While the tone from Federal Reserve officials’ comments on Wednesday was mixed, investors still focused on comments made on Tuesday by Fed Governor Christopher Waller – an influential and previously hawkish voice at the U.S. central bank. Waller had said rate cuts could begin in months if inflation keeps easing.

On Wednesday the Fed’s Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he expects U.S. growth to slow and inflation to continue to ease on the back of tight monetary policy.

But in contrast, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin on Wednesday said he is “skeptical” that inflation is on its way down to 2%, and wants the option of another rate hike in case inflation gains steam.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 27.39 points, or 0.08%, to 35,444.37; the S&P 500 gained 4.81 points, or 0.11%, to 4,559.7; and the Nasdaq Composite added 6.98 points, or 0.05%, to 14,288.74.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.43% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.11%.

In U.S. Treasuries, yields were lower with the benchmark 10-year note on track for a third straight session of declines, as the economic data failed to derail expectations that a Fed rate cut could be on the horizon.

U.S. 10-year notes were down 3.8 basis points to 4.298%, from 4.336% late on Tuesday while the 30-year bond was last down 3.4 basis points to yield 4.4904% and the 2-year note was last was down 6.6 basis points to yield 4.6702%.

In currencies, the dollar index, which tracks the currency against six peers, earlier hit its lowest since early August before reversing course.

The dollar index rose 0.273%, with the euro down 0.21% to $1.0967 while the Japanese yen strengthened 0.04% versus the greenback at 147.41 per dollar. Sterling was last trading at $1.2681, down 0.09% on the day.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday as supply disruption caused by a storm in the Black Sea combined with lower U.S. inventories to drive buying while investors waited for an OPEC+ meeting where output policy is expected to be decided on Thursday.

U.S. crude recently rose 0.89% to $77.09 per barrel and Brent was at $82.24, up 0.69% on the day.

Elsewhere, gold shot to a roughly seven-month high of $2,051 an ounce.

Spot gold was up 0.05% to $2,041.89 an ounce. U.S. gold futures gained 0.15% to $2,043.00 an ounce.

(Reporting by Tom Wilson in London and Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Miral Fahmy, Bernadette Baum and Josie Kao)

By Shariq Khan

BENGALURU (Reuters) -Oil prices edged higher in volatile trading on Wednesday as investors focused their attention on an upcoming OPEC+ output policy meeting and looked past a jump in U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate stockpiles.

Brent crude futures were up 43 cents, or 0.5%, to $82.11 a barrel by 11:32 a.m. ET [1632 GMT]. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 49 cents, or 0.6%, at $76.90 a barrel.

Both benchmarks gained more than a dollar earlier in the session, briefly turned negative before the bearish weekly U.S. inventory report was released, and then rebounded after.

“Prices are going to remain volatile until we get greater clarity out of OPEC,” Kpler analyst Matt Smith said.

Oil benchmarks rose about 2% on Tuesday as the market anticipated that OPEC+, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, would extend or deepen supply cuts.

OPEC+ on Wednesday continued talks, which sources had described as difficult. A meeting to decide on next year’s output policy on Thursday was, however, expected to go ahead on schedule, sources said.

“We expect Saudi Arabia to extend their 1 million barrel per day production cut with little other positive news from the meeting,” Smith said.

The Energy Information Administration reported a surprise build in U.S. crude oil and distillate fuel stocks last week, indicating weak demand. Gasoline stocks also rose by more than expected, the data showed. [EIA/S]

However, the impact of those builds was neutralised by large draws in other refined products, like residual fuel oil, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

A severe storm in the Black Sea region has disrupted up to 2 million bpd of oil exports from Kazakhstan and Russia, according to state officials and port agent data, raising the prospect of short-term supply tightness.

Kazakhstan’s largest oilfields are cutting combined daily oil output by 56% from Nov. 27, the Kazakh energy ministry said.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan; Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Yuka Obayashi and Muyu Xu; Editing by Barbara Lewis, Paul Simao and Marguerita Choy)

By Tom Wilson

LONDON (Reuters) – Treasury yields and the dollar hit multi-month lows on Wednesday after a U.S. Federal Reserve official made fresh hints of interest rate cuts, while stocks gained ground on hopes of easing inflation.

Fed funds futures rallied on the remarks to price in more than hundred basis points (bps) of cuts in 2024 and a 40% chance they begin as soon as March. Two-year Treasury yields fell sharply and touched fresh lows in the Asia session.

The two-year yield hit its lowest since mid-July at 4.69% and the benchmark 10-year yield fell 6 bps to its lowest since September at 4.28%.

Euro zone sovereign bond yields also fell and markets increased bets on rate cuts after data from North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, supported expectations for a drop in German inflation.

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six peers, hit its lowest since early August at 102.46.

The dollar fell 0.2% at 147.70 yen, having earlier traded at its lowest since mid-September. It touched a 3-1/2 month low at $1.1017 per euro. [FRX/]

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller – an influential and previously hawkish voice at the U.S. central bank – told the American Enterprise Institute on Tuesday that rate cuts could begin in a matter of months, provided inflation keeps easing.

Waller’s remark echoed earlier comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

“The U.S. remarks are instantly priced in,” said Robert Alster, chief investment officer at Close Brothers Asset Management, adding that central banks in major economies across the world were starting to deliver “varying remarks” on inflation.

“The U.S. is dovish, the UK is neutral or on the fence, and the Europeans are to some extent quite hawkish.”

European stocks added 0.4%, with German shares rising 1% to touch a four-month high on the North Rhine-Westphalia data.

The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was flat and on track for a gain of about 9% this month, which would be its best in three years.

Wall Street shares were set to open up 0.3%.

Earlier, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.2% on weakness in Hong Kong tech shares.

Currencies including sterling and the Australian dollar, as well as a host of Asian emerging market currencies, also made fresh multi-month peaks on the dollar.

The New Zealand dollar was last up 0.3%, having blown past resistance to top 62 U.S. cents and make a four-month high. New Zealand’s central bank on Wednesday slightly lifted its interest rate projections and warned hikes may not be over.

Australian inflation eased by more than expected.

‘CONDITIONALITY’

Waller’s remarks extended what has been a two-week rally in stocks and bonds around the world since a benign U.S. inflation report two weeks ago — except in China, where doubts about the economy and a deepening property crisis have investors downbeat.

“Surprisingly explicit,” was how analysts at Deutsche Bank described the comments. “That was taken as another sign that the Fed were done hiking rates,” they added in a note to clients.

Some analysts are wary that markets have run with parts of Fed officials’ remarks — flagging possible rate cuts — even though the comments have been conditional on further declines in inflation and on financial conditions staying restrictive.

“Bets ought to be guided by conditionality that policy is appropriately tight, not indulged with abandon on over-confidence that Fed is done,” said Mizuho economist Vishnu Varathan.

Elsewhere, gold shot to a seven-month high above $2,501 an ounce.

“Gold has confirmed its shift into a new range,” Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis at StoneX, wrote in a note to clients, adding that it “now needs to correct and stabilise.”

Brent crude futures climbed 1.4% to $82.78 a barrel ahead of a crucial OPEC+ meeting on Thursday to decide output policy in the next months, but prices were set for a monthly drop.

(Reporting by Tom Wilson in London and Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Miral Fahmy and Bernadette Baum)

By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Wednesday as investors turned their attention to an OPEC+ meeting to decide on output policy, while supply disruption caused by a storm in the Black Sea and lower U.S. inventories drove buying.

Brent crude futures climbed 86 cents, or 1.1%, to $82.54 a barrel at 1031 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 93 cents, or 1.2%, at $77.34 a barrel.

Both benchmarks gained about 2% on Tuesday as the market anticipated the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia (OPEC+), will extend or deepen supply cuts.

OPEC+ on Wednesday continued talks, which sources had described as difficult. A meeting to decide on next year’s output policy on Thursday was, however, expected to go ahead on schedule, sources said on Wednesday.

“If they (OPEC+) fail to come to a preliminary deal, we cannot rule out the risk that the meeting is further delayed, which would likely put some downward pressure on oil prices,” Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, analysts from ING bank, said in a note to clients.

A severe storm in the Black Sea region has disrupted up to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil exports from Kazakhstan and Russia, according to state officials and port agent data, raising the prospect of short-term supply tightness.

Kazakhstan’s largest oilfields are cutting combined daily oil output by 56% from Nov. 27, the Kazakh energy ministry said.

The oil market also found support from a drop in U.S. crude inventories.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 817,000 barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures.

Eight analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 900,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 24. Weekly U.S. government data on stockpiles is due on Wednesday.

(Additional reporting by Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo and Muyu Xu in Singapore; Editing by Barbara Lewis)

By Tom Wilson and Tom Westbrook

LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Treasury yields and the dollar hit multi-month lows on Wednesday after a U.S. Federal Reserve official made fresh hints of interest rate cuts, while stocks were mixed globally.

Fed funds futures rallied on the remarks to price in more than hundred basis points (bps) of cuts in 2024 and a 40% chance they begin as soon as March. Two-year Treasury yields fell sharply and touched fresh lows in the Asia session.

The two-year yield hit its lowest since mid-July at 4.69% and the benchmark 10-year yield fell 6 bps to its lowest since September at 4.28%.

Euro zone sovereign bond yields also fell and markets increased bets on policy rate cuts after data from North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, supported expectations for a drop in German inflation.

The dollar was last down 0.1% at 147.33 yen, having earlier in the day traded at its lowest since Sept. 12 at 146.68. It touched a 3-1/2 month low at $1.1017 per euro. [FRX/]

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller – an influential and previously hawkish voice at the U.S. central bank – told the American Enterprise Institute on Tuesday that rate cuts could begin in a matter of months, provided inflation keeps easing.

Waller’s remark echoed earlier comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

“The U.S. remarks are instantly priced in,” said Robert Alster, chief investment officer at Close Brothers Asset Management, adding that central banks in major economies across the world were starting to deliver “varying remarks” on inflation.

“The U.S. is dovish, the UK is neutral or on the fence, and the Europeans are to some extent quite hawkish.”

European stocks edged up 0.1% in early trading, with Frankfurt shares leading gains after the German data.

The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was flat and is on track for a gain of 8.7% this month, its best in three years.

Earlier, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan briefly hit a one-week high, before weakness in Hong Kong tech shares dragged it to a 0.2% loss.

The New Zealand dollar was last up 0.9%, having blown past resistance to top 62 U.S. cents and make a four-month high. New Zealand’s central bank on Wednesday slightly lifted its interest rate projections and warned hikes may not be over.

The euro, yen, sterling, Australian dollar, yuan, Swiss franc and a host of Asian emerging market currencies also made fresh multi-month peaks on the dollar, while gold shot to a seven-month high above $2,501 an ounce.

‘CONDITIONALITY’

Waller’s remarks extended what has been a two-week rally in stocks and bonds around the world since a benign U.S. inflation report two weeks ago — except in China, where doubts about the economy and a deepening property crisis have investors downbeat.

“Surprisingly explicit,” was how analysts at Deutsche Bank described the comments. “That was taken as another sign that the Fed were done hiking rates,” they added in a note to clients.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 2.4%, and is down 0.4% so far in November. It hasn’t posted a positive month since July.

Some analysts are wary that markets have run with parts of Fed officials’ remarks — flagging possible rate cuts — even though the comments have been conditional on further declines in inflation and on financial conditions staying restrictive.

“Bets ought to be guided by conditionality that policy is appropriately tight, not indulged with abandon on over-confidence that Fed is done,” said Mizuho economist Vishnu Varathan.

Elsewhere, Australian inflation eased by more than expected.

Brent crude futures steadied at $81.74 a barrel ahead of a crucial OPEC+ meeting on Thursday to decide output policy in the next months, but prices were set for a monthly drop.

(Reporting by Tom Wilson in London and Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Kim Coghill and Miral Fahmy)

By Yuka Obayashi and Muyu Xu

TOKYO/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil edged higher on Wednesday as investors turned cautious ahead of a crucial OPEC+ meeting to decide output policy in the coming months, while a supply disruption caused by a storm in the Black Sea provided a lift for prices.

Brent crude futures climbed 3 cents to $81.71 a barrel at 0625 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 17 cents, or 0.2%, at $76.58 a barrel.

Both benchmarks gained about 2% on Tuesday on the possibility the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia (OPEC+), will extend or deepen supply cuts, as well as concerns over Kazakh oil output and a weaker U.S. dollar.

“Investors covered short positions ahead of the OPEC+ meeting amid worries over supply disruption from Kazakhstan,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.

“All eyes are on OPEC+ policy and demand outlook toward the end of this year, but WTI is expected to hover around $76, with a range of $5 each above and below, for a while unless OPEC+ significantly expands production cuts,” he said.

OPEC+ is due to hold an online ministerial meeting on Thursday to discuss 2024 production targets, after delaying the meeting from Nov. 26.

The talks will be difficult and a rollover of the previous agreement is possible rather than deeper production cuts, four OPEC+ sources said.

“If they (OPEC+) fail to come to a preliminary deal, we cannot rule out the risk that the meeting is further delayed, which would likely put some downward pressure on oil prices,” said Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, analysts from ING bank, in a note to clients.

“The outlook for the oil market in 2024 will largely depend on OPEC+ policy.”

The premium on front-month loading Brent contracts over ones loading in six months climbed to a two-week high, suggesting a build up of concerns about supply deficits in the long-term.

A severe storm in the Black Sea region has disrupted up to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil exports from Kazakhstan and Russia, according to state’s officials and port agent data, fuelling concerns of short-term supply tightness.

Kazakhstan’s largest oilfields are cutting combined daily oil output by 56% from Nov. 27, the Kazakh energy ministry said.

Oil also found support from the dollar’s weakness and a drop in U.S. crude inventories.

The dollar languished near a three-month trough against its major peers on Wednesday as expectations mount the Federal Reserve could begin lowering rates by early next year.

A weaker dollar typically supports oil prices as it makes oil cheaper for those holding other currencies.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 817,000 barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures.

Eight analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 900,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 24. Weekly U.S. government data on stockpiles is due on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Yuka Obayashi and Muyu Xu; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Kim Coghill)