Blog

By Scott Murdoch and Alun John

SYDNEY/LONDON (Reuters) -Government bond yields rose and shares dipped a touch on Tuesday, as markets reduced their bets on central bank rate cuts coming as soon as March, and oil bounced back from sharp declines the previous day.

The 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury yield was up four basis points (bps) at 4.04% and sharply above a five-month low of 3.783% hit on Dec. 27. [US/]

Germany’s 10-year bund yield likewise was up 4 bps at 2.19%, having nudged below 1.9% between Christmas and New Year. [GVD/EUR]

This year’s jump in benchmark U.S. yield is less dramatic in the context of its fall from just over 5% in October 2023, however.

“A few things have come together in the past couple of weeks: We’d moved too far and even without anything we would have seen a correction after the rally, and then activity data has on balance been a bit stronger and employment data, especially U.S. nonfarm payrolls have been decent,” said Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

A wave of bond supply is also weighing on the market, Schaffrik added.

Euro area unemployment data released Tuesday came in below expectations and last week U.S. data showed employers hired more workers than expected in December.

That has caused traders to slightly push back expectations of near imminent rate cuts that had built late in 2023. Current market pricing reflects a 58% chance of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, down from more than 80% late last year, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool.

December’s U.S Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, due Thursday, will likely be the main factor this week in further guiding such expectations.

Share markets also eased on Tuesday and Europe’s broad SXTOOXX 600 index shed 0.5%, drifting off a near two-year high hit at the start of January. [.EU]

U.S. S&P 500 futures lost 0.45% and Nasdaq futures shed 0.6%, pointing to a lower open for U.S. stocks which rose on Monday driven by giant chipmaker Nvidia which posted a record high close after unveiling new desktop graphics processors taking advantage of artificial intelligence. [.N]

Subsequent gains in Japanese chipmakers helped the country’s Nikkei 225 benchmark to a new 33-year high on Tuesday. [.T]

Eyes in Europe were on London-listed fund manager Jupiter which fell 15%, the biggest decliner on the FTSE350 index of large and mid-cap stocks, after it flagged net outflows of 2.2 billion pounds ($2.8 billion) for 2023 and the departure of a star manager. [.L]

Shares in Grifols plunged more than 40% on Tuesday after hedge fund Gotham City Research questioned its accounting practices. The Spanish drug company categorically denied the allegations.

EYES ON OIL

Oil managed to find its feet on Tuesday with both Brent crude and U.S. crude futures up more than 2.5% at $78.13 a barrel and $72.69 respectively.

They had fallen more than 3% and 4% on sharp price cuts by top exporter Saudi Arabia and a rise in OPEC output, with European wholesale gas prices also down around their lowest level since last summer. [O/R] [NG/EU]

Spot gold was 0.3% higher at $2033.8 an ounce. [GOL/]

Currency markets were fairly quiet with the dollar index up a touch at 102.37 – nearly 1% higher year to date, partly thanks to gains on the Japanese yen which was last at 143.8 per dollar. The euro was last at $1.0934, a touch weaker on the day and down 0.9% year to date. “We had started the year thinking that a backup in short-term rates could give the dollar a little support – though in fact, dollar gains have been very modest,” Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING, said in a morning note. “Behind that may well be the conviction view that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year and that, unless something has broken somewhere, increasing long dollar positions would now be a counter-trend trade.”

(Reporting by Scott Murdoch in Sydney. Editing by Gerry Doyle, Shri Navaratnam, Sharon Singleton and Andrew Heavens)

By Robert Harvey

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose by more than $2 on Tuesday on tensions in the Middle East and reduced Libyan output, but were yet to fully recovered from steep losses earlier this week.

Brent crude futures rose by $2, or 2.63%, to $78.12 a barrel at 1312 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained $2.09, or 2.95%, to $72.86 a barrel.

Tensions in the Middle East and an ongoing supply outage in Libya offered support to prices on Tuesday, analysts said.

Some major shipping firms are still avoiding the Red Sea due to attacks by Yemeni Houthi militants, which have targeted vessels to show their support for Hamas in its war with Israel.

Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd will continue to divert vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, it said on Tuesday.

The Israeli military has said its fight against Hamas will continue through 2024, worrying markets that the conflict could grow into a regional crisis that could disrupt Middle Eastern oil supplies.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Israeli leaders there was still a chance of winning acceptance from their Arab neighbours if they create a path to a viable Palestinian state.

Brent and WTI incurred 3% and 4% losses respectively on Monday, following sharp cuts by top exporter Saudi Arabia to its official selling prices (OSP), prompting both supply and demand concerns.

“The question is whether the Saudi move of reducing OSPs to a 27-month low is also a sign of a potential increase in oil supply implying serious discord within OPEC+,” PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.

But Saudi Arabia on Tuesday emphasised its keenness to support efforts aimed at stabilising oil markets.

Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch added that the OSP cut “indicates a weakening of demand for oil in the three most important demand regions.”

German industrial production unexpectedly fell in November according to the federal statistics office, marking a sixth consecutive monthly decline.

Investors are also awaiting U.S. inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group due later.

Core inflation data from the U.S. on Thursday could also offer clues regarding country’s the fight against inflation.

(Reporting by Robert Harvey in London, Arathy Somasekhar in Houston and Emily Chow in Singapore; editing by Jason Neely and Louise Heavens)

By Robert Harvey

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Tuesday after sliding in the previous session as markets weighed Middle East tensions against demand worries and rising OPEC supply.

Brent crude futures rose $1.32, or 1.73%, to $77.44 a barrel at 1049 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained $1.25, or 1.77%, to $72.02 a barrel.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and an ongoing supply outage in Libya offered support to prices on Tuesday, analysts said.

“On the supply side, there are some bullish factors from the closure of Libya’s largest oilfield, which has affected around 0.3 million barrels per day of oil production,” said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank.

Some major shipping firms are still avoiding the Red Sea. Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd will continue to divert vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in the wake of maritime attacks by Yemeni Houthi militants, it said on Tuesday.

Regarding the Gaza war, the Israeli military has said its fight against Hamas will continue through 2024, worrying markets that the conflict could grow into a regional crisis that could disrupt Middle Eastern oil supplies.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Israeli leaders there was still a chance of winning acceptance from their Arab neighbours if they create a path to a viable Palestinian state.

The oil benchmarks are rebounding from 3% and 4% losses incurred on Monday respectively, following sharp cuts by top exporter Saudi Arabia to its official selling prices (OSP).

“The question is whether the Saudi move of reducing OSPs to a 27-month low is also a sign of a potential increase in oil supply implying serious discord within OPEC+,” PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.

The market is awaiting U.S. inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group due on Tuesday, while core inflation data on Thursday could offer fresh clues regarding the fight against inflation.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman on Monday said she now sees U.S. monetary policy as “sufficiently restrictive” and signalled her willingness to support eventual interest-rate cuts as inflation eases.

(Reporting by Robert Harvey in London, Arathy Somasekhar in Houston and Emily Chow in Singapore; editing by Jason Neely)

By Scott Murdoch and Alun John

SYDNEY/LONDON (Reuters) -Shares held their gains on Tuesday after a tech-led rally on Wall Street the day before and lower oil prices had boosted global stocks, while U.S. benchmark treasury yields rose.

MSCI’s world share index was flat after jumping 0.9% on Monday, Europe’s STOXX 600 index dipped 0.14%, drifting off a two-year high hit at the start of January, and U.S. share futures dipped 0.3%.

There was more excitement in Asia where Japan’s Nikkei hit a new 33-year high, as chipmakers rose in the slipstream of U.S. giant Nvidia which posted a record high close on Monday after unveiling new desktop graphics processors taking advantage of artificial intelligence. [.T] [.N]

London-listed fund manager Jupiter drew eyes at the European open, falling 12%, the biggest decliner on the FTSE350 index of large and mid-cap stocks, after it flagged net outflows of 2.2 billion pounds ($2.8 billion) for 2023 and the departure of a star manager.

While shares in Grifols plunged more than 40% on Tuesday after hedge fund Gotham City Research questioned its accounting practices. The Spanish drug company categorically denied the allegations.

The bigger macro economic news of the week is not due until Thursday in the form of December’s U.S Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, which will influence how soon the U.S. Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates.

Traders this year have been slightly pushing back expectations of near imminent rate cuts that had built late in 2023. Current market pricing reflects a 58% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting, down from more than 80% late last year, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool, though some see that as too soon.

“Inflation has not returned to the target just yet and the Fed should not be in too much of a rush to cut. CPI can be quite sticky and stubborn, we expect them to start cutting rates from June,” said Marcella Chow, JPMorgan Asset Management’s global market strategist in Hong Kong.

However, giving some justification to those expecting earlier rate cuts, overnight the New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that U.S. consumers’ projection of inflation over the short run fell to the lowest level in nearly three years in December.

That reassessment of rate cuts expectations has weighed on government bonds at the start of this year. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, was last at 4.042% up 4 basis points on the day, and sharply up from a five-month low of 3.783% hit 27 December. [US/]

This year’s jump in the yield is less dramatic in the context of its fall from just over 5% in October 2023.

Germany’s 10-year bund yield, the European benchmark, was similarly up 4 bps at 2.19%, having nudged below 1.9% between Christmas and New Year. [GVD/EUR]

EYES ON OIL

Oil managed to find its feet on Tuesday with both Brent crude and U.S. crude futures up around 1.2% at $77.03 a barrel and $71.77 respectively.

They had fallen over 3% and 4% on sharp price cuts by top exporter Saudi Arabia and a rise in OPEC output, with European wholesale gas prices also down around their lowest level since last summer. [O/R] [NG/EU]

“Another positive tailwind on the inflation side,” Jim Reid strategist at Deutsche Bank said of the declines in a morning note to clients .

Spot gold was up 0.4% higher at 2036.1 an ounce. [GOL/]

Currency markets were fairly quiet with the dollar not having gained as much as it could have against European peers on the back of this year’s move higher in yields.

The euro was last at $1.0945 broadly steady on the day and down 0.8% year to date.

“We had started the year thinking that a backup in short-term rates could give the dollar a little support – though in fact, dollar gains have been very modest,” said Chris Turner global head of markets at ING in a morning note.

“Behind that may well be the conviction view that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year and that, unless something has broken somewhere, increasing long dollar positions would now be a counter-trend trade.”

(Reporting by Scott Murdoch in Sydney. Editing by Gerry Doyle, Shri Navaratnam and Sharon Singleton)

By Arathy Somasekhar and Emily Chow

(Reuters) -Oil prices steadied on Tuesday after sliding in the previous session, as markets weighed Middle East tensions against demand worries and rising OPEC supply.

Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $76.29 a barrel at 0707 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures inched up 0.1%, or 5 cents, to $70.82 a barrel.

The benchmarks had fallen over 3% and 4% respectively on Monday on sharp price cuts by top exporter Saudi Arabia and a rise in OPEC output.

“Saudi Arabia’s sharp price cuts and OPEC’s increased production have offset supply concerns caused by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,” said CMC Markets analyst Leon Li.

On the Gaza war, the Israeli military has said its fight against Hamas will rage through 2024, worrying markets that the conflict could grow into a regional crisis that could disrupt Middle Eastern oil supplies.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv late on Monday to brief Israeli officials on his two days of talks with Arab leaders on ending the war.

Holding back price gains however, a Reuters survey on Friday found that OPEC oil output rose in December as increases in Angola, Iraq and Nigeria offset continuing cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the wider OPEC+ alliance.

Higher supply had prompted Saudi Arabia to cut the February official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia to the lowest level in 27 months.

Oil prices are likely to trade in a range between $75 and $80 per barrel in the near term, said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, “barring an unforeseen flare up in the Middle East situation.”

“On the supply side, there are some bullish factors from the closure of Libya’s largest oilfield, which has affected around 0.3 million barrels per day of oil production,” he added.

Supporting prices, the dollar paused its rally on Tuesday, as traders reaffirmed their bets for a slew of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. A weaker dollar boosts oil prices as crude becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman on Monday said she now sees U.S. monetary policy as “sufficiently restrictive” and signalled her willingness to support eventual interest-rate cuts as inflation eases.

The market is awaiting U.S. inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group later in the day.

(Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar in Houston and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Sonali Paul)

By Scott Murdoch

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Asian stocks advanced on Tuesday after a tech-led rally on Wall Street as investors look to the next set of U.S inflation numbers due this week, which could provide further clarity on when the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.2%, after U.S. stocks ended the previous session with gains.

Trading in Europe was also set for a positive turn, with the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.29%, German DAX futures 0.27% higher and FTSE futures up 0.34%.

U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, were down slightly 0.1%.

Australian shares were up 0.95%, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index was trading 1.14% higher.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX200 bounced higher after November retail sales posted the biggest monthly gain in two years and comfortably topped a Reuters poll estimate.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 0.26% while China’s bluechip CSI300 Index gained 0.21% after earlier trading in negative territory.

The positive sentiment across the region’s equities markets comes ahead of December’s U.S Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading due to be published on Thursday.

It is expected to show headline inflation rose 0.2% in the month and by 3.2% on an annual basis.,

Overnight, the New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that U.S. consumers’ projection of inflation over the short run fell to the lowest level in nearly three years in December.

That reinforced bets for Fed cuts to begin soon, though some analysts say the market pricing of monetary easing is overdone.

“The market is now looking for five U.S. rate cuts in 2024, which we think is too aggressive. We’re looking to three, not five,” said Marcella Chow, JPMorgan Asset Management’s global market strategist in Hong Kong.

“Inflation has not returned to the target just yet and the Fed should not be in too much of a rush to cut. CPI can be quite sticky and stubborn, we expect them to start cutting rates from June.”

China is due to publish December CPI figures on Friday which analysts expect will show further deflation amid persistent weakness in the economy.

China’s stock market was among the worst performers globally in 2023, with the CSI300 index closing the year with 11% losses, against a 20% gain for global stocks.

“Investors’ conviction and confidence is driving the Chinese market now because on the fundamentals side in terms of earnings and revenue performance it’s okay,” said Zhikai Chen, BNP Paribas Asset Management’s head of Asian equities.

“But investors are just not willing to buy China or China linked companies even though the valuations have gone down so much.”

Chen said foreign investors were likely to remain out of the Chinese equities markets until there were clearer signs of stimulus to support domestic consumption and the country’s troubled property sector.

The dollar on Tuesday dropped 0.43% against the yen to 143.6 . It is still some distance from last week’s high of 145.98.

The yen was earlier little changed after Tokyo core inflation data slowed for the second month in December, new data showed on Tuesday.

The result is expected to take some pressure that might encourage the Bank of Japan to quickly exit ultra-loose monetary policy.

The European single currency was up 0.1% on the day at $1.0954, having lost 0.74% in a month, while the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, was down at 102.19.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.58% on Monday, the S&P500 gained 1.41%, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.2% following a strong surge in U.S tech stocks.

In Asian trading, the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose to 4.0114% compared with its U.S. close of 4.002% on Monday.

The two-year yield, which rises with traders’ expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 4.3704% compared with a U.S. close of 4.345%.

U.S. crude ticked up 0.1% to $70.84 a barrel. Brent crude rose to $76.32 per barrel.

Gold was slightly higher. Spot gold was traded at $2032.6823 per ounce. [GOL/]

(Reporting by Scott Murdoch in Sydney. Editing by Gerry Doyle & Shri Navaratnam)

By Arathy Somasekhar and Emily Chow

(Reuters) -Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday after sliding in the previous session, as markets weighed Middle East tensions against demand worries and rising OPEC supply.

Brent crude futures rose 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $76.30 a barrel at 0445 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures inched up 0.1%, or 6 cents, to $70.83 a barrel.

The benchmarks had fallen over 3% and 4% respectively on Monday on sharp price cuts by top exporter Saudi Arabia and a rise in OPEC output.

“Saudi Arabia’s sharp price cuts and OPEC’s increased production have offset supply concerns caused by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,” said CMC Markets analyst Leon Li.

On the Gaza war, the Israeli military has said its fight against Hamas will rage through 2024, worrying markets that the conflict could grow into a regional crisis that could disrupt Middle Eastern oil supplies.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv late on Monday to brief Israeli officials on his two days of talks with Arab leaders on ending the war.

Holding back price gains however, a Reuters survey on Friday found that OPEC oil output rose in December as increases in Angola, Iraq and Nigeria offset continuing cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the wider OPEC+ alliance.

Higher supply had prompted Saudi Arabia to cut the February official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia to the lowest level in 27 months.

Oil prices are likely to trade in a range between $75 and $80 per barrel in the near term, said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, “barring an unforeseen flare up in the Middle East situation.”

“On the supply side, there are some bullish factors from the closure of Libya’s largest oilfield, which has affected around 0.3 million barrels per day of oil production,” he added.

Supporting prices, the dollar paused its rally on Tuesday, as traders reaffirmed their bets for a slew of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. A weaker dollar boosts oil prices as crude becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman on Monday said she now sees U.S. monetary policy as “sufficiently restrictive” and signalled her willingness to support eventual interest-rate cuts as inflation eases.

The market is awaiting U.S. inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group later in the day.

(Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar in Houston and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Sonali Paul)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A vehicle crashed into an exterior gate of the White House complex in Washington shortly before 6 p.m. ET (0000 GMT) on Monday, the U.S. Secret Service said.

U.S. Secret Service Chief of Communications Anthony Guglielmi said a driver was taken into custody as “the cause and manner” of the incident is being investigated.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the incident.

A Delaware man was charged last month with drunk driving after he accidentally crashed his vehicle into U.S. President Joe Biden’s motorcade.

The U.S. Secret Service said “there was no protective interest associated with this event.”

(Reporting by Jasper Ward; Editing by Sandra Maler)

By Abhirup Roy and Victoria Waldersee

LAS VEGAS (Reuters) – Mercedes-Benz launched a new virtual assistant at the CES electronics trade fair on Monday capable of providing context-based suggestions and engaging in dialogue with users, signalling another step forward in the use of artificial intelligence in cars.

    The assistant can speak in different tones of various emotions and ask intelligent questions to clarify what exactly is being asked, the company said.

“The car is your dialogue partner. You can ask questions, have a conversation, be productive,” Mercedes’ chief technology officer, Markus Schaefer, said at a press roundtable in Las Vegas.

    The assistant will be rolled out in vehicles including the new concept CLA class, an all-electric take on the carmaker’s smaller four-door model, premiering in North America at the trade show.

With electric-vehicle hardware less complex and variable than that of combustion-engine cars, carmakers are looking to set themselves apart on their software offerings.

Voice assistant technology in cars is becoming increasingly sophisticated, from the use of personalised avatars to generative AI technology.

Volkswagen presented its first vehicles featuring a voice assistant that integrates ChatGPT technology on Monday, enabling drivers to have researched content read to them during their drive.

Volkswagen said its assistant would be able to engage in dialogue with users by mid-year, and would remember previous questions and respond accordingly.

Mercedes-Benz said an added feature of its new voice assistant was a plausibility check for the responses it provides. It will check recommendations via data in the cloud and customers’ self-reporting when, for example, a recommended restaurant or shop has closed down.

“We feel that we have an obligation if we put something in the car that you can trust the information,” Schaefer said.

(Reporting by Abhirup Roy in Las Vegas and Victoria Waldersee in Berlin; Editing by Matthew Lewis)

By Scott Murdoch

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Asia’s stock indexes were mostly higher Tuesday after a tech-led surge on Wall Street as investors await the next set of U.S inflation numbers due this week, which could hint at when the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.5%, after U.S. stocks ended the previous session with gains.

Australian shares were up 1.17%, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index was trading 1.6% higher.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX200 bounced higher after November retail sales grew by 2% month on month following a 0.2% contraction in October. The result was higher than the 1.2% forecast in a Reuters poll.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 0.26% while China’s bluechip CSI300 Index fell 0.21%.

The dollar dropped 0.21% against the yen to 143.9 . It is still some distance from its high this year of 145.98 on Jan 5.

The yen was little changed after Tokyo core inflation data slowed for the second month in December, new data showed on Tuesday.

The result is expected to take some pressure that might encourage the Bank of Japan to quickly exit ultra-loose monetary policy.

The European single currency was up 0.1% at $1.0957, having lost 0.72% in a month, while the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, was down at 102.19.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.58% on Monday, the S&P500 gained 1.41%, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.2% following a strong surge in U.S tech stocks.

In early trade Tuesday, the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose to 4.0267% compared with its U.S. close of 4.002% on Monday.

The two-year yield, which rises with traders’ expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 4.3746%, compared with a U.S. close of 4.345%.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Monday that with inflation still above the central bank’s 2% target, his bias was towards keeping monetary policy tight.

However, he reiterated his earlier view that he does anticipate rate reductions this year, with two quarter percentage point cuts likely needed by the end of 2024.

December’s U.S Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading will be published on Thursday and is expected to show headline inflation rose 0.2% in the month and by 3.2% on an annual basis.,

“We expect the Fed’s current restrictive settings will continue to slow demand and help the economy return to greater equilibrium,” ANZ economists wrote on Tuesday. “Expectations for an early rate cut … are high with the market putting a 50% chance on a March rate cut. We are less optimistic and believe the Fed will be patient, wanting greater certainty before starting a cutting cycle.”

U.S. crude ticked up 0.16% to $70.88 a barrel. Brent crude fell to $76.27 per barrel.

Gold was slightly lower. Spot gold was traded at $2027.7766 per ounce.

(Reporting by Scott Murdoch in Sydney. Editing by Gerry Doyle)