Author: Dorian Holden

On Nov. 12, we listed Moderna as a “must own” vaccine stock, as it traded at $85.18.

Just days later, it’s up to $95.71 and exploding on news its vaccine is 94.5% effective against the coronavirus.  Preliminary analysis of data from more than 30,000 volunteers showed the vaccine prevented nearly all symptomatic cases of COVID-19.  

In addition, according to a recent press release:

“The primary endpoint of the Phase 3 COVE study is based on the analysis of COVID-19 cases confirmed and adjudicated starting two weeks following the second dose of vaccine. This first interim analysis was based on 95 cases, of which 90 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 5 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.5% (p <0.0001).”

“A secondary endpoint analyzed severe cases of COVID-19 and included 11 severe cases (as defined in the study protocol) in this first interim analysis. All 11 cases occurred in the placebo group and none in the mRNA-1273 vaccinated group.”

Together with Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine, also shown to be more than 90% effective, the U.S. could have two vaccines for emergency use by December with as many as 60 million doses available by the end of the year, as noted by Reuters.

“These are obviously very exciting results,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, as quoted by CNN. “It’s just as good as it gets — 94.5% is truly outstanding.”

The news couldn’t come at a better time with U.S. cases passing 11 million.  

States have been reporting higher numbers.  Deaths and hospitalizations have been rising.  And cases in Europe have been soaring.  Hopefully, these vaccines do the trick, and life can resume some sort of normalcy moving forward.

The post Pandemic 2020: This is the News We’ve Been Waiting For appeared first on Morningology.

Keep an eye on rare earth trades, like the Van Eck Vectors Rare Earth ETF (REMX).

At the moment, China controls 80% of all rare earth metals used in the United States, which means we’re incredibly reliant on their supply.  Without it, key industries –  robotics, 5G,  solar panels, your iPhones, electric vehicles, and other civil and military technologies  – suffer. 

In fact, without enough supply we can’t make electric vehicles, iPhones, iPads, F-35 jets, Patriot missiles, and a host of other products that must have rare earths. For example, up to 27% of rare earths are used in the production of neo-magnets, which are absolutely essential in all electric vehicles.  Apple for example uses several rare earths in all of its products – including neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium.

But with tensions mounting with China, they could easily restrict the supply we need.  

For example, in recent weeks, China threatened to sanction firms including Lockheed Martin, Boeing Defense, Raytheon as well as individuals and entities that are involved in arms sales to Taiwan.  “It sends a clear signal that China’s decision-making won’t be disturbed by the US and any acts that have undermined China’s sovereignty, security and development interests are bound to face serious consequences, analysts said,” as noted by Global Times. 

Then, just days ago, President Trump banned Americans from investing in Chinese companies that may be owned or controlled by the U.S. military.  

“Smartphone maker Huawei and Hikvision, one of the world’s largest manufacturers and suppliers of video surveillance equipment, are among the blacklisted companies. Some of the other companies listed, including China Telecom and China Mobile, trade on the New York Stock Exchange,” as noted by CNN.

Unfortunately, this isn’t the first time China has threatened such action.

Each time a threat is made to restrict rare earth, prices and related stocks explode higher.

The post This is China’s Most Dangerous Economic Weapon appeared first on Morningology.

The pandemic is a “humanitarian disaster,” as noted by CNN.

And there’s no slowdown in sight.

At the moment, the world is up to 52.2 million cases, with 1.286 million unfortunate deaths. In the U.S., we have 10.4 million cases. In India, 8.6 million. In Brazil, 5.7 million. France is nearing two million. Russia is up to 1.84 million.

Fortunately, we may be nearing a vaccine.

Pfizer for example, announced its COVID-19 vaccine is 90% effective. 

“Amazing news from Pfizer with 90% efficacy. This hopefully is the beginning of the end of our fight against Covid,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said, as quoted by CNBC.

Shares of Moderna are exploding on news Dr. Fauci said its upcoming vaccine trial data may be positive. “Moderna has seen a significant increase in the rate of case identification across sites in the last week,” the company said. 

“As a result, the company expects the first interim analysis will include substantially more than 53 cases, the targeted trigger point for the analysis.”

The post Two “Must Own” Vaccine Stocks with More Upside Ahead appeared first on Morningology.

With one of the most bizarre, volatile years on record almost behind us, Goldman Sachs just lifted its target on the S&P 500 to 3,700 from 3,600 for 2020.

The firm is also targeting 4,300 by the close of 2021, and 4,600 by the end of 2022.

In short, they’re very much bullish.

That’s thanks in part to Pfizer’s vaccine news, and speculation it could receive emergency use authorization by the end of January 2021.  Sufficient doses should be available for the U.S. population during the first half of the New Year, they added.

“A vaccine is a more important development for the economy and markets than the prospective policies of a Biden presidency. The much-awaited results from Pfizer that its COVID-19 vaccine has an efficacy rate greater than 90% is a positive event that will allow society to gradually normalize during 2021,” they said, as quoted by Yahoo Finance.

In addition, according to MarketWatch, “They increased earnings estimates, mostly reflecting the better-than-expected results for the third quarter. They also are expecting better growth in the U.S. next year than the market does, at 5.3% versus the consensus forecast of 3.8%.”

However, Goldman isn’t the one bullish on upside.

JP Morgan also forecast 3,600 on the S&P 500 for 2020, and 4,500 for 2021.  

“The equity market is facing one of the best backdrops for sustained gains in years. After a prolonged period of elevated risks (global trade war, COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. election uncertainty, etc.), the outlook is significantly clearing up, especially with news of a highly effective COVID-19 vaccine,” JPMorgan added.

The post This is Why Goldman Sachs Sees a Big Surge Ahead for Markets appeared first on Morningology.

What a day…

On potential vaccine news, the Dow is up 1,090 points. The NASDAQ is up 95, as the S&P 500 tacks on another 90 points.  

All on news Pfizer just said its COVID-19 vaccine is 90% effective.  “Amazing news from Pfizer with 90% efficacy. This hopefully is the beginning of the end of our fight against Covid,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said, as quoted by CNBC.

As noted by Pfizer Chairman and CEO Albert Bourla:

“It is a great day for science. It is a great day for humanity when you realize your vaccine has 90% effectiveness. That’s overwhelming,” Bourla said on CNBC.  “You understand that the hopes of billions of people and millions of businesses and hundreds of governments that were felt on our shoulders, now… I think we can see light at the end of the tunnel.”

From here, if life can soon get back to some sort of normalcy, these are some of the top stocks that could run to higher highs.

Cruise Stocks

Cruise lines were beaten silly by the coronavirus, with ships docked and unable to move.  However, with a potential vaccine, that may not be the case for much longer.  With plenty of pent up demand from travelers, cruise stocks, like Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) could push much higher from current prices.

Theater Stocks

On vaccine excitement and hopes of survival, theatres stocks are pushing higher as well.  AMC (AMC), Cinemark (CNK), and IMAX (IMAX) are all just beginning to push higher.

Hotel Stocks

Other leisure names like hotel stocks are pushing higher on hopes life may soon return to some sort of post-pandemic normalcy.  Take a look at Marriott (MAR), Hilton (HLT), and Hyatt (H).

The post The Top Stocks to Consider on Potential Vaccine News appeared first on Morningology.

There’s still no winner in the 2020 race to the White House.

But stocks don’t seem to care.

In fact, as we speak the Dow is up another 488 points, as the NASDAQ rallies 286. The S&P 500 is up another 69, making stocks the biggest winner in the election so far.

All because the government will be immensely divided.

According to CNBC, “Stocks surged in a massive relief rally, as investors viewed the fact Democrats are unlikely to control the Senate as a positive. Without a majority in both houses of Congress, if Democrat Joe Biden wins the tight presidential race, he would be unable push through stiffer regulations and higher taxes.”

Technology and healthcare companies are now seen as less likely to face any new regulations, near-term.

And, as noted by the BBC, “The thinking in the markets … is it looks like it’s divided government regardless of who takes the White House,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial. “That means a lot less probability of big sweeping legislative change, big sweeping spending or tax programmes and therefore a lot less uncertainty.”

Without any big headwinds standing in the way, we could see Dow 30,000 this month.

In short, it’s an exciting time to be an investor, as stocks become the biggest winner of this wild 2020 election.

The post And the Winner of the U.S. Election Is… appeared first on Morningology.

The nail baiting race for the White House continues.

While we’ll never share our political opinion here (it has no place), we can report that Joe Biden is in the lead.  If he pulls off a win here, some of the top stocks you may want to consider loading up on include:

Green Energy Stocks

Green energy stocks, like First Solar (FSLR) and Tesla (TSLA) could benefit, as Biden has made climate change a major theme.  

In fact, on his site, it’s noted that, “Biden believes the Green New Deal is a crucial framework for meeting the climate challenges we face. It powerfully captures two basic truths, which are at the core of his plan: (1) the United States urgently needs to embrace greater ambition on an epic scale to meet the scope of this challenge, and (2) our environment and our economy are completely and totally connected.”

Infrastructure Stocks

The Democrats recently unveiled a $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan.

“The infrastructure bill, known as the Moving Forward Act, includes $25 billion for drinking water, $100 billion for broadband, $70 billion for clean energy projects, $100 billion for low income schools, $30 billion to upgrade hospitals, $100 billion in funding for public housing and $25 billion for the postal service,” according to The Hill. 

Biden has also noted that infrastructure investing is vital to the economy.

Cannabis Stocks

If Biden were to win the U.S. election, we could see further relaxed cannabis laws.  In fact, he has already said he would “decriminalize the use of cannabis and automatically expunge all prior cannabis use convictions,” as quoted by the Boston Globe.

At this time, it’s a wait and see.  But we wanted to share some trading ideas with you in case Biden does pull off a win.

The post Election 2020: How to Invest in a Potential Biden Presidency appeared first on Morningology.

The 2020 election is tense.

While no one has a clue as to who will win, we have a good idea which stocks could potentially push higher the morning after.

If President Trump Wins a Second Term…

If President Trump can win a second term, markets could explode even higher.  Despite some hiccups – including the coronavirus, —  the Dow ran from 19,000 to a high of 29,535 since Trump took office.  Should he win again, 30,000 may not be far off.

A Trump win “could lead to a friendlier tax and regulatory environment for the traditional energy industry,” Allianz Global Investors said, as quoted by Reuters.  Bank stocks could run higher, too, including Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.

At the same time, the U.S. could see further unrest from those upset by his potential win.

Remember, the NYPD for example has been training every day and plans to deploy hundreds of extra officers for the Nov. 3 election, says Daily Mail.

In Los Angeles, officers are being told they may need to reschedule their vacations, according to the Los Angeles Daily News.  “We’re working with all of our partners, both first responders, emergency partners as well as L.A. County (sheriffs) … to talk about the approaching election cycle,” Moore said, adding that he has spoken to state and federal law enforcement as well to plan for any protests or groups that become violent.

If Biden were to win the White House…

Gun stocks may also benefit under a Biden win.  All on concerns he and his running mate Kamala Harris could enact legislation to potentially curb the Second Amendment.  It’s part of the reason gun stocks, like RGR and SWBI have exploded higher.

Analysts also note that alternative energy stocks could soar under a Biden win.  

Biden has reportedly outlined a $2 trillion sustainable energy infrastructure plan that could make the U.S. carbon free by 2035.

However, a Biden win could hurt natural gas.

Biden’s energy plan could speed up natural gas becoming “economically and environmentally untenable within the power sector,” Bloomberg notes.   “Biden’s climate plan would only accelerate that outcome, with massive investments in wind, solar and battery storage giving those energy sources a leg up. And his goal of a carbon-neutral grid would severely curb, if not destroy, gas’s share of the pie in favor of cheaper, cleaner renewables.”

The post Trump v. Biden 2020: The Potential Winners to Watch appeared first on Morningology.

This is getting old.

Months into the coronavirus, cases are exploding again, raising the fear of more lockdowns, and a severe drag on the global economy.  In the U.S. we just saw another 70,000 new cases on Tuesday, after adding 83,000 over the weekend, bringing the total number of new cases in a single week to 500,000, according to MarketWatch.

To date, the global number of cases is now slightly over 44.06 million.  

More than 1.16 million people have now died.  

In the U.S., cases are up to nearly 8.8 million. “In 36 states, the hospitalization rate for the coronavirus increased by at least 5% over in the past seven days,” said David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets. “Traders keep an eye on the hospitalization rates because the authorities want to ensure the health care services aren’t overwhelmed — that can often be a trigger to bringing in tougher restrictions.”

 In India, we’re up to 7.8 million.  Brazil is up to 5.4 million.  Russia just crossed 1.55 million. France is up to 1.2 million.  Spain is at 1.1 million.

And it’s only getting worse with further market downside likely.

The last thing you want to do is panic in the chaos.  We have to remember markets are resilient and can bounce back from this, too.  Instead of running from the market, you may want to consider hedging for further potential downside.  You can do that with these opportunities.

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) 

Volatility ETFs, such as the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) are rising along with the Volatility Index (VIX) as the markets melt down ahead of the U.S. elections, and on rising coronavirus case numbers.  

iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (VXX) 

The VXX ETN provides exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index. The VXX last traded at $25.74 and could easily run well above $30, near-term with the chaos.

ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY)

ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF provides long exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index, which measures the returns of a portfolio of monthly VIX futures contracts with a weighted average of one month to expiration.  The VIXY last traded at $21.10 and could run above $25, near-term, as well.

The post Don’t Run From the Market — Hedge with these Opportunities appeared first on Morningology.

The coronavirus has gotten way out of hand.

Over the weekend, the U.S. saw another 83,000 cases, and numbers are still climbing.  

Hospitals are running near capacity. 

In Texas, Judge Ricardo Samaniego issued a curfew saying that hospitals and health workers are now “overwhelmed and exhausted,” as quoted by CNBC.

Former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb just said, “We are likely to see a very dense epidemic.  I think we are right now at the cusp of what is going to be exponential spread in parts of the country.”

What could make the situation far worse is winter.

“The coronavirus crisis may be entering a more dangerous period in the U.S. as the country heads toward winter season and temperatures fall,” says Andy Slavitt, former acting administrator at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, as noted by CNBC.

“We’re seeing much higher growth in cases all over the northern part of the U.S., and the northern part of the U.S. is just a teaser for what happens when it gets cold throughout the rest of the country, as it is going to shortly,” he added.

That being the case, some of the top stocks to consider include:

Teladoc Health (TDOC)

Even at $220 a share, TDOC is still a solid opportunity, as telehealth demand explodes.  After all, “The critical need for social distancing among physicians and patients will drive unprecedented demand for telehealth, which involves the use of communication systems and networks to enable either a synchronous or asynchronous session between the patient and provider,” said Victor Camlek, healthcare principal analyst at Frost & Sullivan.

Zoom Video Communications (ZM)

With another wave of the virus making its way around the world, video conferencing will be under big demand for students and businesses.  

Video conferencing has become a big part of life for millions working and schooling from home. In fact, according to Reuters, “Video-conferencing platforms, once used mostly as a technological substitute for in-person meetings, became a vital part of day-to-day life this year for people stuck at home under coronavirus restrictions, be it for work, school or socializing.”  

Moderna Inc. (MRNA)

CEO Stephane Bancel said the U.S. government could authorize emergency use of the company’s vaccine by December.  That is, if the company can produce positive interim results in November from its clinical trial.

According to The Wall Street Journal:

The company must “monitor the safety of at least half of the study subjects for two months after vaccination before it can seek an authorization for emergency use. Moderna was likely to reach that threshold in late November. If Moderna files for an emergency use authorization soon after, the Food and Drug Administration may take a few weeks to review the application before deciding in December.”

The post With Pandemic Worsening, These are the Three “Must Own” Stocks appeared first on Morningology.