Electric vehicle company Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is likely to put an emphasis on future new models and technology progress for autonomous vehicles when the company reports fourth-quarter financial results after market close Wednesday.
Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Tesla to report fourth-quarter revenue of $27.13 billion, up from $25.17 billion in last year’s fourth quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has missed analyst revenue estimates in four of the last five quarters and six of the last 10 quarters overall.
Analysts expect Tesla to report fourth quarter earnings per share of 74 cents, up from 71 cents per share in last year’s fourth quarter. The company has missed analyst earnings per share estimates in four of the last five quarters.
Tesla previously announced its fourth-quarter vehicle production and delivery figures. The company produced 459,445 vehicles and delivered 495,570 vehicles in the quarter. While the deliveries were a record in the fourth quarter, the company’s 1.79 million vehicles delivered in 2024 marked a year-over-year decline from 1.81 million in 2023. This was the first annual deliveries decline in company history.
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What Analysts Are Saying: Analysts were mixed on the short-term outlook for Tesla after the company’s fourth-quarter delivery report. They continue to show questions for the short term with many bullish outlooks on the EV stock for the long term.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney recently highlighted the Model Y update, automotive market share and a consumer survey in a new investor note.
The analyst maintained a Neutral rating with a price target of $345.
“Mix and how fast Tesla ramps up production of the refreshed version will help determine the effect on blended ASPs. We believe the new version offers several good enhancements,” Delaney said of the Model Y refresh.
Ahead of Tesla’s fourth-quarter financial results, Delaney highlighted five of the top items to watch.
- Automotive non-GAAP gross margins
- Vehicle delivery outlook for 2025
- Progress with FSD and AI-related efforts
- Growth in other segments, including Services and Energy
- Progress with Optimus and expectations on ramp timing
“We believe a key debate in the market will be whether Tesla can grow more meaningfully in 2025/2026, driven by a refreshed Model Y and a new lower-cost model or models,” Delaney added.
Morgan Stanley analysts said the key topic for Tesla’s earnings report and conference call will be if the company is sticking with a delivery growth target of 20% to 30% for 2025. The analysts said growth of 10% to 20% is more likely with pressures on the EV market, increased competition for the sector in China and the potential of federal tax credits going away.
The analysts said production ramp-up of the Model Y refresh, FSD progress and any updates on the Optimus humanoid bot will also be key topics to watch.
Morgan Stanley has an Overweight rating on Tesla and $430 price target.
On the other side of the bull case for Tesla is Bank of America analyst John Murphy who downgraded Tesla from Buy to Neutral earlier this month and raised the price target from $400 to $490.
Murphy shared a Tesla sum-of-the-parts valuation and what could have the highest impact on the future of the company.
Tesla has long-term catalysts, but the rise in the stock price in 2024 could put valuation into question, Murphy said in the note. “Valuation captures much of long-term potential from autos, robotaxi, other and execution risk is high.”
Murphy added that there is still upside to Tesla stock, but the price increase limits the long-term potential.
Tesla’s robotaxi segment is called the biggest opportunity by Murphy, a segment that he believes could account for nearly 50% of the company’s valuation and be worth $420 billion in the U.S. and over $800 billion globally in the future.
Key Items to Watch: Delivery guidance for 2025 remains the biggest item for most analysts and investors. Outside of that there are multiple areas that people will be watching Thursday.
This includes the potential end of the $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who supported Donald Trump in the 2024 election, has supported this potential end as it could be good for his company and bad for competitors.
Analysts may try to get Musk to comment on the timing of the end of the credit and if it could lead to a short-term demand spike.
As a close ally of Trump, another topic could be autonomous vehicle testing on roads. Trump previously said he would ban autonomous vehicles from roads, which could cause harm to Tesla. An update on where things stand would likely be well received by investors if Trump has reversed his stance.
With the promise of new models in 2025, investors and analysts will also be looking for commentary on the timing of this and any hints at what this means.
TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock is down 0.3% Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $488.54. Tesla stock is up 108% over the last year, with the majority of gains coming after Trump won the election.
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